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icon for 2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？
地緣政治·移民

2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？

icon for 2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？
地緣政治·移民

2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？

12月 31

12月 31

40萬到50萬 68%

30至40萬 18%

50萬到60萬 12.6%

>1百萬 2.2%

Polymarket

$123,239 交易量

40萬到50萬 68%

30至40萬 18%

50萬到60萬 12.6%

>1百萬 2.2%

Polymarket

$123,239 交易量

少於20萬

$10,203 交易量

2%

20-30萬

$9,677 交易量

<1%

30至40萬

$14,943 交易量

18%

40萬到50萬

$7,904 交易量

61%

50萬到60萬

$6,505 交易量

13%

60至70萬

$5,679 交易量

2%

70萬至80萬

$41,871 交易量

1%

80萬到90萬

$12,789 交易量

1%

90萬-100萬

$6,562 交易量

1%

>1百萬

$7,106 交易量

2%

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.**Trader consensus centers on 400-500k formal removals in calendar 2026, reflecting ICE's sustained but constrained enforcement pace.** Recent data show July 2026 arrests reaching a second-term record near 50,000 and monthly removals around 34,000, supported by expanded detention capacity, interior operations, and roughly 1,200-1,500 daily arrests. These figures align with FY2026 trends projecting totals in the low-to-mid 400,000s, below the administration's 1 million annual target. Self-deportation incentives have added hundreds of thousands of departures, yet official counts emphasize formal ICE removals. Logistical limits, court processing, and shifting arrest priorities toward non-criminals have kept volumes from accelerating further, positioning the 400-500k range as the dominant outcome in current market pricing.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
交易量
$123,239
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.**Trader consensus centers on 400-500k formal removals in calendar 2026, reflecting ICE's sustained but constrained enforcement pace.** Recent data show July 2026 arrests reaching a second-term record near 50,000 and monthly removals around 34,000, supported by expanded detention capacity, interior operations, and roughly 1,200-1,500 daily arrests. These figures align with FY2026 trends projecting totals in the low-to-mid 400,000s, below the administration's 1 million annual target. Self-deportation incentives have added hundreds of thousands of departures, yet official counts emphasize formal ICE removals. Logistical limits, court processing, and shifting arrest priorities toward non-criminals have kept volumes from accelerating further, positioning the 400-500k range as the dominant outcome in current market pricing.

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.

The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
交易量
$123,239
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...
During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "40萬到50萬" at 61%, followed by "30至40萬" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" has generated $123.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" is "40萬到50萬" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30至40萬" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.