Current numerical weather models, including GFS and ICON-EU runs, position 18–20°C as the most likely maximum temperatures in Warsaw on September 12, 2026, under building high pressure, light northwesterly winds, and partial cloud cover that limits daytime heating. Recent observations show a cooling trend after early-September warmth, with afternoon highs on the 10th–11th already settling near 17–19°C amid drier air masses. Ensemble guidance indicates low variability, with minimal risk of stronger warming or cooling before the verification window closes. Traders’ implied probabilities align closely with this consensus, though final model updates on the 11th could shift odds if unexpected cloud or wind changes emerge.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月12日華沙的最高溫度？
9月12日華沙的最高溫度？
19°C 42%
20°C 31%
18°C 25%
21°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-12
15°C或以下
2%
16°C
3%
17°C
3%
18°C
25%
19°C
42%
20°C
31%
21°C
6%
22°C
3%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C或以上
<1%
19°C 42%
20°C 31%
18°C 25%
21°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-12
15°C或以下
$40 交易量
2%
16°C
$31 交易量
3%
17°C
$9 交易量
3%
18°C
$430 交易量
25%
19°C
$83 交易量
42%
20°C
$1,027 交易量
31%
21°C
$23 交易量
6%
22°C
$18 交易量
3%
23°C
$57 交易量
1%
24°C
$105 交易量
<1%
25°C或以上
$425 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather models, including GFS and ICON-EU runs, position 18–20°C as the most likely maximum temperatures in Warsaw on September 12, 2026, under building high pressure, light northwesterly winds, and partial cloud cover that limits daytime heating. Recent observations show a cooling trend after early-September warmth, with afternoon highs on the 10th–11th already settling near 17–19°C amid drier air masses. Ensemble guidance indicates low variability, with minimal risk of stronger warming or cooling before the verification window closes. Traders’ implied probabilities align closely with this consensus, though final model updates on the 11th could shift odds if unexpected cloud or wind changes emerge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$2,247結束日期
2026-09-12市場開放時間
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather models, including GFS and ICON-EU runs, position 18–20°C as the most likely maximum temperatures in Warsaw on September 12, 2026, under building high pressure, light northwesterly winds, and partial cloud cover that limits daytime heating. Recent observations show a cooling trend after early-September warmth, with afternoon highs on the 10th–11th already settling near 17–19°C amid drier air masses. Ensemble guidance indicates low variability, with minimal risk of stronger warming or cooling before the verification window closes. Traders’ implied probabilities align closely with this consensus, though final model updates on the 11th could shift odds if unexpected cloud or wind changes emerge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,247結束日期
2026-09-12市場開放時間
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETCurrent numerical weather models, including GFS and ICON-EU runs, position 18–20°C as the most likely maximum temperatures in Warsaw on September 12, 2026, under building high pressure, light northwesterly winds, and partial cloud cover that limits daytime heating. Recent observations show a cooling trend after early-September warmth, with afternoon highs on the 10th–11th already settling near 17–19°C amid drier air masses. Ensemble guidance indicates low variability, with minimal risk of stronger warming or cooling before the verification window closes. Traders’ implied probabilities align closely with this consensus, though final model updates on the 11th could shift odds if unexpected cloud or wind changes emerge.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions