Market-implied odds heavily favor a 30°C high in Shanghai on September 5, driven by consistent official forecasts and model consensus showing a maximum around 86°F (30°C) under partly cloudy skies with moderate northeast winds and humidity near 60-70%. Current observations midday reached 29-30°C, aligning with seasonal norms for early September when subtropical high pressure and onshore flow typically cap extremes without strong solar heating or southerly advection. This positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of National Meteorological Center guidance and ensemble outputs, which show low variance for exceeding 30°C. A realistic challenge would require a late-day model revision or localized urban heat island spike pushing the official maximum to 31°C, though current data and short-term trends make that improbable before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月5日上海最高溫度？
9月5日上海最高溫度？
30°C 99.4%
31°C <1%
25°C或以下 <1%
26°C <1%
$58,692 交易量
$58,692 交易量
2026-09-05
25°C或以下
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
99%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C或以上
<1%
30°C 99.4%
31°C <1%
25°C或以下 <1%
26°C <1%
$58,692 交易量
$58,692 交易量
2026-09-05
25°C或以下
$797 交易量
<1%
26°C
$665 交易量
<1%
27°C
$3,597 交易量
<1%
28°C
$4,785 交易量
<1%
29°C
$9,944 交易量
<1%
30°C
$15,402 交易量
99%
31°C
$14,055 交易量
1%
32°C
$7,558 交易量
<1%
33°C
$1,183 交易量
<1%
34°C
$461 交易量
<1%
35°C或以上
$244 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds heavily favor a 30°C high in Shanghai on September 5, driven by consistent official forecasts and model consensus showing a maximum around 86°F (30°C) under partly cloudy skies with moderate northeast winds and humidity near 60-70%. Current observations midday reached 29-30°C, aligning with seasonal norms for early September when subtropical high pressure and onshore flow typically cap extremes without strong solar heating or southerly advection. This positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of National Meteorological Center guidance and ensemble outputs, which show low variance for exceeding 30°C. A realistic challenge would require a late-day model revision or localized urban heat island spike pushing the official maximum to 31°C, though current data and short-term trends make that improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$58,692結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Market-implied odds heavily favor a 30°C high in Shanghai on September 5, driven by consistent official forecasts and model consensus showing a maximum around 86°F (30°C) under partly cloudy skies with moderate northeast winds and humidity near 60-70%. Current observations midday reached 29-30°C, aligning with seasonal norms for early September when subtropical high pressure and onshore flow typically cap extremes without strong solar heating or southerly advection. This positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of National Meteorological Center guidance and ensemble outputs, which show low variance for exceeding 30°C. A realistic challenge would require a late-day model revision or localized urban heat island spike pushing the official maximum to 31°C, though current data and short-term trends make that improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$58,692結束日期
2026-09-05市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETMarket-implied odds heavily favor a 30°C high in Shanghai on September 5, driven by consistent official forecasts and model consensus showing a maximum around 86°F (30°C) under partly cloudy skies with moderate northeast winds and humidity near 60-70%. Current observations midday reached 29-30°C, aligning with seasonal norms for early September when subtropical high pressure and onshore flow typically cap extremes without strong solar heating or southerly advection. This positioning reflects aggregated trader assessment of National Meteorological Center guidance and ensemble outputs, which show low variance for exceeding 30°C. A realistic challenge would require a late-day model revision or localized urban heat island spike pushing the official maximum to 31°C, though current data and short-term trends make that improbable before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions