Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton’s comfortable primary victory in July and the Arizona 4th district’s established D+4 partisan lean underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting consistent past performance and limited crossover appeal for Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser in suburban Maricopa County areas including Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler. With two months remaining, any shift would require major national tailwinds for Republicans or unforeseen developments such as candidate health events or late scandals capable of altering turnout patterns among independents and suburban voters.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$33,658 交易量
$33,658 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
95%
共和黨
6%
$33,658 交易量
$33,658 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$25,617 交易量
95%
共和黨
$8,041 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton’s comfortable primary victory in July and the Arizona 4th district’s established D+4 partisan lean underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting consistent past performance and limited crossover appeal for Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser in suburban Maricopa County areas including Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler. With two months remaining, any shift would require major national tailwinds for Republicans or unforeseen developments such as candidate health events or late scandals capable of altering turnout patterns among independents and suburban voters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$33,658結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton’s comfortable primary victory in July and the Arizona 4th district’s established D+4 partisan lean underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting consistent past performance and limited crossover appeal for Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser in suburban Maricopa County areas including Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler. With two months remaining, any shift would require major national tailwinds for Republicans or unforeseen developments such as candidate health events or late scandals capable of altering turnout patterns among independents and suburban voters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$33,658結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETIncumbent Democrat Greg Stanton’s comfortable primary victory in July and the Arizona 4th district’s established D+4 partisan lean underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting consistent past performance and limited crossover appeal for Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser in suburban Maricopa County areas including Tempe, Mesa, and Chandler. With two months remaining, any shift would require major national tailwinds for Republicans or unforeseen developments such as candidate health events or late scandals capable of altering turnout patterns among independents and suburban voters.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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