Houthi territorial gains in early September 2026, including seizure of Perim Island, Mokha, and Dhubab, have driven the sharpest recent decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily crossings halving to 15 on September 11 from 30 the prior day amid an ongoing maritime embargo targeting Saudi-linked vessels. This compounds the July 2026 blockade effects that already cut Saudi crude loadings through the strait by roughly 50% to about 1.5 million barrels per day, while broader Strait of Hormuz constraints have redirected Asian-bound flows through the narrow chokepoint and elevated Brent crude toward $104–110 per barrel. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of escalation risk versus continued limited traffic by non-targeted or cleared vessels, with insurance premiums, dark transits, and older fleet composition signaling sustained caution; key near-term catalysts include further Houthi advances, war-risk repricing, and any confirmed attacks that could push daily volumes toward zero or force full rerouting around the Cape.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
2026-09-30
9月30日
7%
12月31日
36%
$49 交易量
9月30日
$47 交易量
7%
12月31日
$2 交易量
36%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Houthi territorial gains in early September 2026, including seizure of Perim Island, Mokha, and Dhubab, have driven the sharpest recent decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily crossings halving to 15 on September 11 from 30 the prior day amid an ongoing maritime embargo targeting Saudi-linked vessels. This compounds the July 2026 blockade effects that already cut Saudi crude loadings through the strait by roughly 50% to about 1.5 million barrels per day, while broader Strait of Hormuz constraints have redirected Asian-bound flows through the narrow chokepoint and elevated Brent crude toward $104–110 per barrel. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of escalation risk versus continued limited traffic by non-targeted or cleared vessels, with insurance premiums, dark transits, and older fleet composition signaling sustained caution; key near-term catalysts include further Houthi advances, war-risk repricing, and any confirmed attacks that could push daily volumes toward zero or force full rerouting around the Cape.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市場開放時間： Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
交易量
$49結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Houthi territorial gains in early September 2026, including seizure of Perim Island, Mokha, and Dhubab, have driven the sharpest recent decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily crossings halving to 15 on September 11 from 30 the prior day amid an ongoing maritime embargo targeting Saudi-linked vessels. This compounds the July 2026 blockade effects that already cut Saudi crude loadings through the strait by roughly 50% to about 1.5 million barrels per day, while broader Strait of Hormuz constraints have redirected Asian-bound flows through the narrow chokepoint and elevated Brent crude toward $104–110 per barrel. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of escalation risk versus continued limited traffic by non-targeted or cleared vessels, with insurance premiums, dark transits, and older fleet composition signaling sustained caution; key near-term catalysts include further Houthi advances, war-risk repricing, and any confirmed attacks that could push daily volumes toward zero or force full rerouting around the Cape.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$49結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETHouthi territorial gains in early September 2026, including seizure of Perim Island, Mokha, and Dhubab, have driven the sharpest recent decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily crossings halving to 15 on September 11 from 30 the prior day amid an ongoing maritime embargo targeting Saudi-linked vessels. This compounds the July 2026 blockade effects that already cut Saudi crude loadings through the strait by roughly 50% to about 1.5 million barrels per day, while broader Strait of Hormuz constraints have redirected Asian-bound flows through the narrow chokepoint and elevated Brent crude toward $104–110 per barrel. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of escalation risk versus continued limited traffic by non-targeted or cleared vessels, with insurance premiums, dark transits, and older fleet composition signaling sustained caution; key near-term catalysts include further Houthi advances, war-risk repricing, and any confirmed attacks that could push daily volumes toward zero or force full rerouting around the Cape.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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