Traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to 78-79°F (36.5%) and 80-81°F (36.0%) as the lowest NYC temperature on August 7, reflecting tight clustering around 76-81°F amid genuine forecast uncertainty. Primary drivers include persistent warm, humid conditions under high pressure with light winds and elevated dew points that limit nocturnal radiational cooling, alongside recent model consensus from NOAA and NWS guidance showing overnight lows near 77°F. Minor spreads among 76-77°F and 82-83°F outcomes stem from subtle differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and steering patterns that could alter minimum readings by 2-4°F. Historical August baselines (average lows ~68°F) underscore the current anomalous warmth, with final resolution hinging on Central Park observations and the next NWS forecast updates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in NYC on August 7?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 7?
78-79°F 20%
76-77°F 19%
80-81°F 18%
74-75°F 11%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 7, 2026
65°F or below
2%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
7%
70-71°F
10%
72-73°F
8%
74-75°F
11%
76-77°F
19%
78-79°F
20%
80-81°F
18%
82-83°F
8%
84°F or higher
5%
78-79°F 20%
76-77°F 19%
80-81°F 18%
74-75°F 11%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 7, 2026
65°F or below
$10 KL.
2%
66-67°F
$24 KL.
1%
68-69°F
$24 KL.
7%
70-71°F
$24 KL.
10%
72-73°F
$0 KL.
8%
74-75°F
$0 KL.
11%
76-77°F
$0 KL.
19%
78-79°F
$0 KL.
20%
80-81°F
$0 KL.
18%
82-83°F
$1 KL.
8%
84°F or higher
$19 KL.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to 78-79°F (36.5%) and 80-81°F (36.0%) as the lowest NYC temperature on August 7, reflecting tight clustering around 76-81°F amid genuine forecast uncertainty. Primary drivers include persistent warm, humid conditions under high pressure with light winds and elevated dew points that limit nocturnal radiational cooling, alongside recent model consensus from NOAA and NWS guidance showing overnight lows near 77°F. Minor spreads among 76-77°F and 82-83°F outcomes stem from subtle differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and steering patterns that could alter minimum readings by 2-4°F. Historical August baselines (average lows ~68°F) underscore the current anomalous warmth, with final resolution hinging on Central Park observations and the next NWS forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 5, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Khối lượng
$101Ngày kết thúc
Aug 7, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 5, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to 78-79°F (36.5%) and 80-81°F (36.0%) as the lowest NYC temperature on August 7, reflecting tight clustering around 76-81°F amid genuine forecast uncertainty. Primary drivers include persistent warm, humid conditions under high pressure with light winds and elevated dew points that limit nocturnal radiational cooling, alongside recent model consensus from NOAA and NWS guidance showing overnight lows near 77°F. Minor spreads among 76-77°F and 82-83°F outcomes stem from subtle differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and steering patterns that could alter minimum readings by 2-4°F. Historical August baselines (average lows ~68°F) underscore the current anomalous warmth, with final resolution hinging on Central Park observations and the next NWS forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$101Ngày kết thúc
Aug 7, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 5, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign nearly equal implied probabilities to 78-79°F (36.5%) and 80-81°F (36.0%) as the lowest NYC temperature on August 7, reflecting tight clustering around 76-81°F amid genuine forecast uncertainty. Primary drivers include persistent warm, humid conditions under high pressure with light winds and elevated dew points that limit nocturnal radiational cooling, alongside recent model consensus from NOAA and NWS guidance showing overnight lows near 77°F. Minor spreads among 76-77°F and 82-83°F outcomes stem from subtle differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and steering patterns that could alter minimum readings by 2-4°F. Historical August baselines (average lows ~68°F) underscore the current anomalous warmth, with final resolution hinging on Central Park observations and the next NWS forecast updates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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