Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to a 15°C low in Milan on August 23, driven by the latest ECMWF and Italian meteorological model runs projecting an overnight minimum near that threshold under clear, calm high-pressure conditions typical for late summer in the Po Valley. Observational data from regional stations show recent nights bottoming at 16–18°C, with light northeasterly winds limiting mixing and allowing radiational cooling to align precisely with the 15°C mark. Historical August climatology supports lows rarely dipping below 17°C, reinforcing the tight market range. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted surge in cloud cover or wind that raises the actual minimum by 1–2°C before official verification closes the period.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Milan on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Milan on August 23?
15°C 99%
14°C 2%
13°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 23, 2026
13°C or below
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
99%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
15°C 99%
14°C 2%
13°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 23, 2026
13°C or below
$157 KL.
1%
14°C
$91 KL.
2%
15°C
$83 KL.
99%
16°C
$347 KL.
<1%
17°C
$524 KL.
<1%
18°C
$237 KL.
<1%
19°C
$595 KL.
<1%
20°C
$1,606 KL.
<1%
21°C
$210 KL.
<1%
22°C
$409 KL.
<1%
23°C or higher
$239 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to a 15°C low in Milan on August 23, driven by the latest ECMWF and Italian meteorological model runs projecting an overnight minimum near that threshold under clear, calm high-pressure conditions typical for late summer in the Po Valley. Observational data from regional stations show recent nights bottoming at 16–18°C, with light northeasterly winds limiting mixing and allowing radiational cooling to align precisely with the 15°C mark. Historical August climatology supports lows rarely dipping below 17°C, reinforcing the tight market range. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted surge in cloud cover or wind that raises the actual minimum by 1–2°C before official verification closes the period.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$4,496Ngày kết thúc
Aug 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to a 15°C low in Milan on August 23, driven by the latest ECMWF and Italian meteorological model runs projecting an overnight minimum near that threshold under clear, calm high-pressure conditions typical for late summer in the Po Valley. Observational data from regional stations show recent nights bottoming at 16–18°C, with light northeasterly winds limiting mixing and allowing radiational cooling to align precisely with the 15°C mark. Historical August climatology supports lows rarely dipping below 17°C, reinforcing the tight market range. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted surge in cloud cover or wind that raises the actual minimum by 1–2°C before official verification closes the period.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$4,496Ngày kết thúc
Aug 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to a 15°C low in Milan on August 23, driven by the latest ECMWF and Italian meteorological model runs projecting an overnight minimum near that threshold under clear, calm high-pressure conditions typical for late summer in the Po Valley. Observational data from regional stations show recent nights bottoming at 16–18°C, with light northeasterly winds limiting mixing and allowing radiational cooling to align precisely with the 15°C mark. Historical August climatology supports lows rarely dipping below 17°C, reinforcing the tight market range. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted surge in cloud cover or wind that raises the actual minimum by 1–2°C before official verification closes the period.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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