**Trader consensus strongly favors a 14°C low for Madrid on August 30, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects consistent forecast guidance from models and early observational data showing clear skies and light winds enabling efficient nocturnal radiative cooling after daytime highs near 31–33°C. Official forecasts from sources like AEMET and regional models project minimums generally between 14–18°C, with several pointing to 14–17°C in the Madrid area under stable anticyclonic conditions typical of late August. Historical averages for the date hover around 18°C, but current atmospheric setup—minimal cloud cover and dew points supporting efficient heat loss—has aligned expectations tightly around 14°C. The 0.5% tail risk for 13°C or below would require faster cooling or localized measurement variation, while higher outcomes appear inconsistent with real-time station readings and model consensus.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Madrid on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 30?
14°C 99.4%
13°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$2,212 KL.
$2,212 KL.
Aug 30, 2026
13°C or below
1%
14°C
99%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
14°C 99.4%
13°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$2,212 KL.
$2,212 KL.
Aug 30, 2026
13°C or below
$130 KL.
1%
14°C
$542 KL.
99%
15°C
$306 KL.
<1%
16°C
$110 KL.
<1%
17°C
$312 KL.
<1%
18°C
$49 KL.
<1%
19°C
$64 KL.
<1%
20°C
$30 KL.
<1%
21°C
$40 KL.
<1%
22°C
$50 KL.
<1%
23°C or higher
$580 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 14°C low for Madrid on August 30, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects consistent forecast guidance from models and early observational data showing clear skies and light winds enabling efficient nocturnal radiative cooling after daytime highs near 31–33°C. Official forecasts from sources like AEMET and regional models project minimums generally between 14–18°C, with several pointing to 14–17°C in the Madrid area under stable anticyclonic conditions typical of late August. Historical averages for the date hover around 18°C, but current atmospheric setup—minimal cloud cover and dew points supporting efficient heat loss—has aligned expectations tightly around 14°C. The 0.5% tail risk for 13°C or below would require faster cooling or localized measurement variation, while higher outcomes appear inconsistent with real-time station readings and model consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$2,212Ngày kết thúc
Aug 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 14°C low for Madrid on August 30, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects consistent forecast guidance from models and early observational data showing clear skies and light winds enabling efficient nocturnal radiative cooling after daytime highs near 31–33°C. Official forecasts from sources like AEMET and regional models project minimums generally between 14–18°C, with several pointing to 14–17°C in the Madrid area under stable anticyclonic conditions typical of late August. Historical averages for the date hover around 18°C, but current atmospheric setup—minimal cloud cover and dew points supporting efficient heat loss—has aligned expectations tightly around 14°C. The 0.5% tail risk for 13°C or below would require faster cooling or localized measurement variation, while higher outcomes appear inconsistent with real-time station readings and model consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$2,212Ngày kết thúc
Aug 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors a 14°C low for Madrid on August 30, 2026, at 99.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects consistent forecast guidance from models and early observational data showing clear skies and light winds enabling efficient nocturnal radiative cooling after daytime highs near 31–33°C. Official forecasts from sources like AEMET and regional models project minimums generally between 14–18°C, with several pointing to 14–17°C in the Madrid area under stable anticyclonic conditions typical of late August. Historical averages for the date hover around 18°C, but current atmospheric setup—minimal cloud cover and dew points supporting efficient heat loss—has aligned expectations tightly around 14°C. The 0.5% tail risk for 13°C or below would require faster cooling or localized measurement variation, while higher outcomes appear inconsistent with real-time station readings and model consensus.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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