**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a daily minimum temperature for Ankara on September 1, 2026, in the 13–17°C range under clear to mostly clear skies and light northeasterly winds.** This positions the overnight low near or slightly above typical early-September climatology for the region (around 14–16°C), driven by radiative cooling under high-pressure dominance with minimal cloud cover or moisture to trap heat. The closely matched market probabilities across 10–16°C outcomes reflect genuine forecast uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models, which can differ by 1–3°C on minimum temperatures due to variations in boundary-layer parameterization, soil moisture assumptions, and the precise timing of any weak frontal passages. Ankara’s inland, elevated location amplifies sensitivity to these factors: clear nights promote stronger cooling via longwave radiation loss, while even modest increases in humidity or wind speed can raise the minimum by limiting that loss. No major synoptic changes have appeared in the past 48 hours to shift consensus, keeping the market focused on fine-scale model spreads ahead of final resolution. Updated runs from agencies such as the Turkish State Meteorological Service or ECMWF over the next 24–36 hours will likely provide the clearest signal on whether the minimum settles toward the lower or mid-teens.