Recent strength in the U.S. labor market, with August nonfarm payrolls surging to 162,000 versus expectations of 56,000, has lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% as of September 4, 2026, and pushed market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting above 60%. Traders are pricing a higher neutral policy rate amid robust growth expectations tied to AI-driven corporate capital spending, which is generating heavy long-term debt issuance that competes with Treasury supply. Persistent fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP and the erosion of the traditional safety premium on Treasuries have also elevated term premiums, while upcoming August CPI and PPI releases will provide the next key test of inflation trajectories. Geopolitical tensions and associated oil-price volatility add further upward pressure on yields in the near term.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
MỚI
Sep 30, 2026
5.10%
10%
5.05%
50%
5.00%
50%
4.97%
50%
4.94%
50%
4.91%
50%
4.88%
50%
4.85%
50%
4.82%
61%
$58 KL.
5.10%
$58 KL.
10%
5.05%
$0 KL.
50%
5.00%
$0 KL.
50%
4.97%
$0 KL.
50%
4.94%
$0 KL.
50%
4.91%
$0 KL.
50%
4.88%
$0 KL.
50%
4.85%
$0 KL.
50%
4.82%
$0 KL.
61%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strength in the U.S. labor market, with August nonfarm payrolls surging to 162,000 versus expectations of 56,000, has lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% as of September 4, 2026, and pushed market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting above 60%. Traders are pricing a higher neutral policy rate amid robust growth expectations tied to AI-driven corporate capital spending, which is generating heavy long-term debt issuance that competes with Treasury supply. Persistent fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP and the erosion of the traditional safety premium on Treasuries have also elevated term premiums, while upcoming August CPI and PPI releases will provide the next key test of inflation trajectories. Geopolitical tensions and associated oil-price volatility add further upward pressure on yields in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Thị trường mở: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Khối lượng
$58Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strength in the U.S. labor market, with August nonfarm payrolls surging to 162,000 versus expectations of 56,000, has lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% as of September 4, 2026, and pushed market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting above 60%. Traders are pricing a higher neutral policy rate amid robust growth expectations tied to AI-driven corporate capital spending, which is generating heavy long-term debt issuance that competes with Treasury supply. Persistent fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP and the erosion of the traditional safety premium on Treasuries have also elevated term premiums, while upcoming August CPI and PPI releases will provide the next key test of inflation trajectories. Geopolitical tensions and associated oil-price volatility add further upward pressure on yields in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Khối lượng
$58Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Recent strength in the U.S. labor market, with August nonfarm payrolls surging to 162,000 versus expectations of 56,000, has lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% as of September 4, 2026, and pushed market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting above 60%. Traders are pricing a higher neutral policy rate amid robust growth expectations tied to AI-driven corporate capital spending, which is generating heavy long-term debt issuance that competes with Treasury supply. Persistent fiscal deficits exceeding 6% of GDP and the erosion of the traditional safety premium on Treasuries have also elevated term premiums, while upcoming August CPI and PPI releases will provide the next key test of inflation trajectories. Geopolitical tensions and associated oil-price volatility add further upward pressure on yields in the near term.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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