Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market are the dominant factors supporting roughly even odds on a federal funds rate hike sometime in 2026. With the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% after the April 29 decision, recent FOMC minutes highlighted growing concern among officials that further price pressures could necessitate tightening if the energy-driven inflation shock does not subside. Markets currently assign under 2% probability to a move at the June 16–17 meeting, yet assign near-even odds to a hike occurring later this year as growth reaccelerates and the dot plot continues to signal limited easing. Key near-term catalysts include the June CPI release, upcoming employment data, and any revisions to the Fed’s economic projections.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$156,836 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
9%
September Meeting
27%
October Meeting
33%
$156,836 KL.
June Meeting
$16,328 KL.
1%
July Meeting
$2,528 KL.
9%
September Meeting
$3,984 KL.
27%
October Meeting
$2,688 KL.
33%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market are the dominant factors supporting roughly even odds on a federal funds rate hike sometime in 2026. With the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% after the April 29 decision, recent FOMC minutes highlighted growing concern among officials that further price pressures could necessitate tightening if the energy-driven inflation shock does not subside. Markets currently assign under 2% probability to a move at the June 16–17 meeting, yet assign near-even odds to a hike occurring later this year as growth reaccelerates and the dot plot continues to signal limited easing. Key near-term catalysts include the June CPI release, upcoming employment data, and any revisions to the Fed’s economic projections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$156,836Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market are the dominant factors supporting roughly even odds on a federal funds rate hike sometime in 2026. With the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% after the April 29 decision, recent FOMC minutes highlighted growing concern among officials that further price pressures could necessitate tightening if the energy-driven inflation shock does not subside. Markets currently assign under 2% probability to a move at the June 16–17 meeting, yet assign near-even odds to a hike occurring later this year as growth reaccelerates and the dot plot continues to signal limited easing. Key near-term catalysts include the June CPI release, upcoming employment data, and any revisions to the Fed’s economic projections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$156,836Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market are the dominant factors supporting roughly even odds on a federal funds rate hike sometime in 2026. With the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% after the April 29 decision, recent FOMC minutes highlighted growing concern among officials that further price pressures could necessitate tightening if the energy-driven inflation shock does not subside. Markets currently assign under 2% probability to a move at the June 16–17 meeting, yet assign near-even odds to a hike occurring later this year as growth reaccelerates and the dot plot continues to signal limited easing. Key near-term catalysts include the June CPI release, upcoming employment data, and any revisions to the Fed’s economic projections.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp