Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above expectations, drove 5-year Treasury yields higher to 4.55% on September 4, lifting the 2-year yield to its highest level since January 2025 and increasing market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Recent Fed communications from Governor Christopher Waller signaled a preference for holding policy steady absent hotter inflation prints, tempering some earlier hawkish bets. Persistent concerns over sticky inflation above the 2% target, elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions, and heavy Treasury issuance continue to support higher term premiums. Core CPI data due next week and the FOMC decision represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift the 5-year yield trajectory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go in September?
MỚI
Sep 30, 2026
4.90%
6%
4.83%
38%
4.78%
50%
4.73%
50%
4.70%
50%
4.67%
50%
4.64%
50%
4.61%
54%
4.58%
64%
$0.00 KL.
4.90%
$0 KL.
6%
4.83%
$0 KL.
38%
4.78%
$0 KL.
50%
4.73%
$0 KL.
50%
4.70%
$0 KL.
50%
4.67%
$0 KL.
50%
4.64%
$0 KL.
50%
4.61%
$0 KL.
54%
4.58%
$0 KL.
64%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above expectations, drove 5-year Treasury yields higher to 4.55% on September 4, lifting the 2-year yield to its highest level since January 2025 and increasing market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Recent Fed communications from Governor Christopher Waller signaled a preference for holding policy steady absent hotter inflation prints, tempering some earlier hawkish bets. Persistent concerns over sticky inflation above the 2% target, elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions, and heavy Treasury issuance continue to support higher term premiums. Core CPI data due next week and the FOMC decision represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift the 5-year yield trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Thị trường mở: Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above expectations, drove 5-year Treasury yields higher to 4.55% on September 4, lifting the 2-year yield to its highest level since January 2025 and increasing market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Recent Fed communications from Governor Christopher Waller signaled a preference for holding policy steady absent hotter inflation prints, tempering some earlier hawkish bets. Persistent concerns over sticky inflation above the 2% target, elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions, and heavy Treasury issuance continue to support higher term premiums. Core CPI data due next week and the FOMC decision represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift the 5-year yield trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 9:06 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above expectations, drove 5-year Treasury yields higher to 4.55% on September 4, lifting the 2-year yield to its highest level since January 2025 and increasing market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Recent Fed communications from Governor Christopher Waller signaled a preference for holding policy steady absent hotter inflation prints, tempering some earlier hawkish bets. Persistent concerns over sticky inflation above the 2% target, elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions, and heavy Treasury issuance continue to support higher term premiums. Core CPI data due next week and the FOMC decision represent the key near-term catalysts that could shift the 5-year yield trajectory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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