**Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) place the expected daytime maximum in Mexico City at 24–26 °C for August 30, 2026.** This range directly supports the market’s concentration on 25 °C (51.5 % implied probability) and 26 °C or higher (38.0 %). Mexico City’s high elevation (~2,240 m) and the ongoing rainy-season pattern keep temperatures moderate. Afternoon convection, driven by low-level moisture from the Pacific and weak low-pressure channels, produces widespread cloud cover, showers, and isolated thunderstorms that limit surface heating. SMN guidance explicitly notes east-southeast winds of 10–20 km/h with gusts to 30–50 km/h and a high probability of chubascos, conditions that favor a peak near 25 °C rather than sustained warming into the upper 20s. Hourly model guidance and real-time observations show temperatures climbing from morning lows of 12–14 °C to afternoon readings around 24–25 °C before convective cooling sets in, reinforcing the current market tilt. No anomalous heat or clear-sky subsidence is indicated, so the implied probabilities remain anchored to the consensus forecast range.