Recent U.S. labor market resilience and persistently elevated inflation have anchored trader consensus around no change or a modest hike at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while headline PCE inflation held near 3.7% amid energy and goods pressures. These outcomes reinforced views that the current 3.50–3.75% fed funds target remains appropriate, pushing implied probabilities for a 25 basis point increase to 24.5% and no change to 60.5%. Markets now price limited easing until mid-2027, with upcoming September CPI and PPI releases likely to influence near-term rate path expectations ahead of the September 15–16 policy decision.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo change 61%
25 bps increase 25%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 3.5%
$62,478 KL.
$62,478 KL.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
4%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
61%
25 bps increase
25%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 61%
25 bps increase 25%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 3.5%
$62,478 KL.
$62,478 KL.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$13,099 KL.
4%
25 bps decrease
$11,934 KL.
14%
No change
$19,062 KL.
61%
25 bps increase
$15,867 KL.
25%
50+ bps increase
$2,515 KL.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. labor market resilience and persistently elevated inflation have anchored trader consensus around no change or a modest hike at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while headline PCE inflation held near 3.7% amid energy and goods pressures. These outcomes reinforced views that the current 3.50–3.75% fed funds target remains appropriate, pushing implied probabilities for a 25 basis point increase to 24.5% and no change to 60.5%. Markets now price limited easing until mid-2027, with upcoming September CPI and PPI releases likely to influence near-term rate path expectations ahead of the September 15–16 policy decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Khối lượng
$62,478Ngày kết thúc
Jan 27, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. labor market resilience and persistently elevated inflation have anchored trader consensus around no change or a modest hike at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while headline PCE inflation held near 3.7% amid energy and goods pressures. These outcomes reinforced views that the current 3.50–3.75% fed funds target remains appropriate, pushing implied probabilities for a 25 basis point increase to 24.5% and no change to 60.5%. Markets now price limited easing until mid-2027, with upcoming September CPI and PPI releases likely to influence near-term rate path expectations ahead of the September 15–16 policy decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$62,478Ngày kết thúc
Jan 27, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. labor market resilience and persistently elevated inflation have anchored trader consensus around no change or a modest hike at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while headline PCE inflation held near 3.7% amid energy and goods pressures. These outcomes reinforced views that the current 3.50–3.75% fed funds target remains appropriate, pushing implied probabilities for a 25 basis point increase to 24.5% and no change to 60.5%. Markets now price limited easing until mid-2027, with upcoming September CPI and PPI releases likely to influence near-term rate path expectations ahead of the September 15–16 policy decision.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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