Traders see the federal funds rate most likely ending 2026 near 3.75–4.0% because the June FOMC dot plot placed the median projection in that zone, with nine of 18 participants favoring at least one hike amid inflation that has remained well above the 2% target. Persistent core PCE readings near 3.3% and earlier strength in growth and labor markets supported that hawkish tilt, even as new Chair Kevin Warsh has reduced forward guidance. Recent July data showing a drop in nonfarm payrolls and softer CPI prints have tempered immediate hike odds for September, yet futures still embed a modest upward drift by year-end. These factors align with the market’s concentration on 3.75% and 4.0% as the consensus outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLãi suất của Fed sẽ là bao nhiêu vào cuối năm 2026?
Lãi suất của Fed sẽ là bao nhiêu vào cuối năm 2026?
3,75% 39.3%
4,0% 27.7%
4,25% 13.9%
3,5% 9.1%
$6,763,334 KL.
$6,763,334 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
≤1,0%
<1%
1,25
1%
1,5%
<1%
1,75%
<1%
2,0%
<1%
2,25%
<1%
2,5%
1%
2,75%
1%
3,0%
1%
3,25%
2%
3,5%
9%
3,75%
39%
4,0%
28%
4,25%
14%
≥ 4,5%
5%
3,75% 39.3%
4,0% 27.7%
4,25% 13.9%
3,5% 9.1%
$6,763,334 KL.
$6,763,334 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
≤1,0%
$245,799 KL.
<1%
1,25
$142,955 KL.
1%
1,5%
$146,382 KL.
<1%
1,75%
$148,184 KL.
<1%
2,0%
$263,484 KL.
<1%
2,25%
$87,683 KL.
<1%
2,5%
$172,965 KL.
1%
2,75%
$61,131 KL.
1%
3,0%
$488,831 KL.
1%
3,25%
$66,074 KL.
2%
3,5%
$202,486 KL.
9%
3,75%
$531,856 KL.
39%
4,0%
$1,369,329 KL.
28%
4,25%
$428,209 KL.
14%
≥ 4,5%
$2,407,967 KL.
5%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Traders see the federal funds rate most likely ending 2026 near 3.75–4.0% because the June FOMC dot plot placed the median projection in that zone, with nine of 18 participants favoring at least one hike amid inflation that has remained well above the 2% target. Persistent core PCE readings near 3.3% and earlier strength in growth and labor markets supported that hawkish tilt, even as new Chair Kevin Warsh has reduced forward guidance. Recent July data showing a drop in nonfarm payrolls and softer CPI prints have tempered immediate hike odds for September, yet futures still embed a modest upward drift by year-end. These factors align with the market’s concentration on 3.75% and 4.0% as the consensus outcomes.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Thị trường mở: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$6,763,334Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Traders see the federal funds rate most likely ending 2026 near 3.75–4.0% because the June FOMC dot plot placed the median projection in that zone, with nine of 18 participants favoring at least one hike amid inflation that has remained well above the 2% target. Persistent core PCE readings near 3.3% and earlier strength in growth and labor markets supported that hawkish tilt, even as new Chair Kevin Warsh has reduced forward guidance. Recent July data showing a drop in nonfarm payrolls and softer CPI prints have tempered immediate hike odds for September, yet futures still embed a modest upward drift by year-end. These factors align with the market’s concentration on 3.75% and 4.0% as the consensus outcomes.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Khối lượng
$6,763,334Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders see the federal funds rate most likely ending 2026 near 3.75–4.0% because the June FOMC dot plot placed the median projection in that zone, with nine of 18 participants favoring at least one hike amid inflation that has remained well above the 2% target. Persistent core PCE readings near 3.3% and earlier strength in growth and labor markets supported that hawkish tilt, even as new Chair Kevin Warsh has reduced forward guidance. Recent July data showing a drop in nonfarm payrolls and softer CPI prints have tempered immediate hike odds for September, yet futures still embed a modest upward drift by year-end. These factors align with the market’s concentration on 3.75% and 4.0% as the consensus outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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