Sticky inflation, with May 2026 core PCE at 3.4%, combined with fiscal deficits and geopolitical oil-price pressures, has anchored the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.70% as of August 19. The Federal Reserve’s patient stance, holding the funds rate in the 3.50–3.75% range amid resilient growth, has elevated term premiums and reduced expectations for near-term easing that could compress yields. Market-implied odds reflect limited downside room before 2027 unless incoming CPI or labor data signal a sharper slowdown. Key near-term catalysts include the next FOMC meeting and August inflation releases, which will test whether yields can breach 4.5% or remain range-bound in the 4–4.5% corridor.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
$225,341 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
3.9%
11%
3.8%
5%
3.7%
2%
3.6%
5%
3.5%
2%
3.0%
2%
2.0%
5%
1.0%
2%
$225,341 KL.
3.9%
$44,197 KL.
11%
3.8%
$41,312 KL.
5%
3.7%
$27,383 KL.
2%
3.6%
$5,587 KL.
5%
3.5%
$33,052 KL.
2%
3.0%
$917 KL.
2%
2.0%
$564 KL.
5%
1.0%
$40,570 KL.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Sticky inflation, with May 2026 core PCE at 3.4%, combined with fiscal deficits and geopolitical oil-price pressures, has anchored the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.70% as of August 19. The Federal Reserve’s patient stance, holding the funds rate in the 3.50–3.75% range amid resilient growth, has elevated term premiums and reduced expectations for near-term easing that could compress yields. Market-implied odds reflect limited downside room before 2027 unless incoming CPI or labor data signal a sharper slowdown. Key near-term catalysts include the next FOMC meeting and August inflation releases, which will test whether yields can breach 4.5% or remain range-bound in the 4–4.5% corridor.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Khối lượng
$225,341Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Sticky inflation, with May 2026 core PCE at 3.4%, combined with fiscal deficits and geopolitical oil-price pressures, has anchored the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.70% as of August 19. The Federal Reserve’s patient stance, holding the funds rate in the 3.50–3.75% range amid resilient growth, has elevated term premiums and reduced expectations for near-term easing that could compress yields. Market-implied odds reflect limited downside room before 2027 unless incoming CPI or labor data signal a sharper slowdown. Key near-term catalysts include the next FOMC meeting and August inflation releases, which will test whether yields can breach 4.5% or remain range-bound in the 4–4.5% corridor.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Khối lượng
$225,341Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Sticky inflation, with May 2026 core PCE at 3.4%, combined with fiscal deficits and geopolitical oil-price pressures, has anchored the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.70% as of August 19. The Federal Reserve’s patient stance, holding the funds rate in the 3.50–3.75% range amid resilient growth, has elevated term premiums and reduced expectations for near-term easing that could compress yields. Market-implied odds reflect limited downside room before 2027 unless incoming CPI or labor data signal a sharper slowdown. Key near-term catalysts include the next FOMC meeting and August inflation releases, which will test whether yields can breach 4.5% or remain range-bound in the 4–4.5% corridor.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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