The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act to $41.1 trillion has created substantial borrowing authority, with current debt levels leaving meaningful headroom into 2027 according to Bipartisan Policy Center and Treasury projections. Congress has routinely raised or suspended the limit in past standoffs, and extraordinary measures have consistently extended the timeline by months after any breach. This track record, combined with the structural incentives for both parties to avoid disrupting Treasury payments and global markets, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus against default by end-2027. A protracted impasse during 2027 ceiling talks or an unforeseen fiscal shock could still introduce limited risk, though historical precedent and market discipline make such outcomes improbable within the market window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
3% khả năng
$16,315 KL.
$16,315 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
3% khả năng
$16,315 KL.
$16,315 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act to $41.1 trillion has created substantial borrowing authority, with current debt levels leaving meaningful headroom into 2027 according to Bipartisan Policy Center and Treasury projections. Congress has routinely raised or suspended the limit in past standoffs, and extraordinary measures have consistently extended the timeline by months after any breach. This track record, combined with the structural incentives for both parties to avoid disrupting Treasury payments and global markets, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus against default by end-2027. A protracted impasse during 2027 ceiling talks or an unforeseen fiscal shock could still introduce limited risk, though historical precedent and market discipline make such outcomes improbable within the market window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Khối lượng
$16,315Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act to $41.1 trillion has created substantial borrowing authority, with current debt levels leaving meaningful headroom into 2027 according to Bipartisan Policy Center and Treasury projections. Congress has routinely raised or suspended the limit in past standoffs, and extraordinary measures have consistently extended the timeline by months after any breach. This track record, combined with the structural incentives for both parties to avoid disrupting Treasury payments and global markets, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus against default by end-2027. A protracted impasse during 2027 ceiling talks or an unforeseen fiscal shock could still introduce limited risk, though historical precedent and market discipline make such outcomes improbable within the market window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Khối lượng
$16,315Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act to $41.1 trillion has created substantial borrowing authority, with current debt levels leaving meaningful headroom into 2027 according to Bipartisan Policy Center and Treasury projections. Congress has routinely raised or suspended the limit in past standoffs, and extraordinary measures have consistently extended the timeline by months after any breach. This track record, combined with the structural incentives for both parties to avoid disrupting Treasury payments and global markets, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus against default by end-2027. A protracted impasse during 2027 ceiling talks or an unforeseen fiscal shock could still introduce limited risk, though historical precedent and market discipline make such outcomes improbable within the market window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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