Traders assign the strongest implied probability to Elon Musk posting 40-64 times over August 20-22, reflecting his typical mid-week-to-weekend rhythm of steady but not explosive X activity. Recent days show consistent engagement around Grok updates and AI benchmarks without viral spikes, while two scheduled Starlink Falcon 9 missions on the 20th and 22nd represent the clearest near-term catalysts that could lift volume through launch commentary or updates. Historical patterns for comparable three-day windows and the absence of major earnings calls, product events, or political flashpoints keep higher buckets (65+) at low single-digit odds. The market frames these odds as aggregated trader consensus on Musk’s established posting cadence rather than any guarantee.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật40-64 47%
<40 30.3%
65-89 18%
90-114 4.3%
MỚI
$10,363 KL.
MỚI
$10,363 KL.
Aug 22, 2026
<40
30%
40-64
47%
65-89
18%
90-114
4%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 47%
<40 30.3%
65-89 18%
90-114 4.3%
MỚI
$10,363 KL.
MỚI
$10,363 KL.
Aug 22, 2026
<40
$327 KL.
30%
40-64
$161 KL.
47%
65-89
$101 KL.
18%
90-114
$152 KL.
4%
115-139
$1,197 KL.
<1%
140-164
$1,617 KL.
<1%
165-189
$3,797 KL.
1%
190-214
$1,120 KL.
<1%
215-239
$1,120 KL.
<1%
240+
$770 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 20 12:00 PM ET to August 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders assign the strongest implied probability to Elon Musk posting 40-64 times over August 20-22, reflecting his typical mid-week-to-weekend rhythm of steady but not explosive X activity. Recent days show consistent engagement around Grok updates and AI benchmarks without viral spikes, while two scheduled Starlink Falcon 9 missions on the 20th and 22nd represent the clearest near-term catalysts that could lift volume through launch commentary or updates. Historical patterns for comparable three-day windows and the absence of major earnings calls, product events, or political flashpoints keep higher buckets (65+) at low single-digit odds. The market frames these odds as aggregated trader consensus on Musk’s established posting cadence rather than any guarantee.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 20 12:00 PM ET to August 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Khối lượng
$10,363Ngày kết thúc
Aug 22, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 12:07 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 20 12:00 PM ET to August 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders assign the strongest implied probability to Elon Musk posting 40-64 times over August 20-22, reflecting his typical mid-week-to-weekend rhythm of steady but not explosive X activity. Recent days show consistent engagement around Grok updates and AI benchmarks without viral spikes, while two scheduled Starlink Falcon 9 missions on the 20th and 22nd represent the clearest near-term catalysts that could lift volume through launch commentary or updates. Historical patterns for comparable three-day windows and the absence of major earnings calls, product events, or political flashpoints keep higher buckets (65+) at low single-digit odds. The market frames these odds as aggregated trader consensus on Musk’s established posting cadence rather than any guarantee.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 20 12:00 PM ET to August 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Khối lượng
$10,363Ngày kết thúc
Aug 22, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 12:07 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the strongest implied probability to Elon Musk posting 40-64 times over August 20-22, reflecting his typical mid-week-to-weekend rhythm of steady but not explosive X activity. Recent days show consistent engagement around Grok updates and AI benchmarks without viral spikes, while two scheduled Starlink Falcon 9 missions on the 20th and 22nd represent the clearest near-term catalysts that could lift volume through launch commentary or updates. Historical patterns for comparable three-day windows and the absence of major earnings calls, product events, or political flashpoints keep higher buckets (65+) at low single-digit odds. The market frames these odds as aggregated trader consensus on Musk’s established posting cadence rather than any guarantee.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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