Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA show global surface temperatures remaining elevated, with June 2026 reaching 1.39°C above the 1850–1900 baseline amid record sea surface temperatures and a strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific. These conditions, combined with the lagged warming effects from prior months and high baseline SST anomalies exceeding +0.5°C, support trader consensus around the 1.20–1.24°C bin for July 2026 as the most probable outcome based on model runs and historical analogs. Shifts in ENSO evolution, rapid cooling from atmospheric patterns, or revisions in final datasets from NOAA or NASA could still alter the precise anomaly within the narrow resolution windows.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоJuly 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.20–1.24ºC 94%
1.15–1.19ºC 3.1%
>1.29ºC 1.4%
<1.10ºC <1%
$60,062 Обс.
$60,062 Обс.
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
3%
1.20–1.24ºC
94%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.20–1.24ºC 94%
1.15–1.19ºC 3.1%
>1.29ºC 1.4%
<1.10ºC <1%
$60,062 Обс.
$60,062 Обс.
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
$8,525 Обс.
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,404 Обс.
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$12,594 Обс.
3%
1.20–1.24ºC
$13,554 Обс.
94%
1.25–1.29ºC
$15,253 Обс.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$4,732 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA show global surface temperatures remaining elevated, with June 2026 reaching 1.39°C above the 1850–1900 baseline amid record sea surface temperatures and a strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific. These conditions, combined with the lagged warming effects from prior months and high baseline SST anomalies exceeding +0.5°C, support trader consensus around the 1.20–1.24°C bin for July 2026 as the most probable outcome based on model runs and historical analogs. Shifts in ENSO evolution, rapid cooling from atmospheric patterns, or revisions in final datasets from NOAA or NASA could still alter the precise anomaly within the narrow resolution windows.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Обсяг
$60,062Дата завершення
Aug 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA show global surface temperatures remaining elevated, with June 2026 reaching 1.39°C above the 1850–1900 baseline amid record sea surface temperatures and a strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific. These conditions, combined with the lagged warming effects from prior months and high baseline SST anomalies exceeding +0.5°C, support trader consensus around the 1.20–1.24°C bin for July 2026 as the most probable outcome based on model runs and historical analogs. Shifts in ENSO evolution, rapid cooling from atmospheric patterns, or revisions in final datasets from NOAA or NASA could still alter the precise anomaly within the narrow resolution windows.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$60,062Дата завершення
Aug 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA show global surface temperatures remaining elevated, with June 2026 reaching 1.39°C above the 1850–1900 baseline amid record sea surface temperatures and a strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific. These conditions, combined with the lagged warming effects from prior months and high baseline SST anomalies exceeding +0.5°C, support trader consensus around the 1.20–1.24°C bin for July 2026 as the most probable outcome based on model runs and historical analogs. Shifts in ENSO evolution, rapid cooling from atmospheric patterns, or revisions in final datasets from NOAA or NASA could still alter the precise anomaly within the narrow resolution windows.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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