The stalled Israel-Saudi normalization talks remain the dominant factor behind the 87.5% "No" probability for completion before 2027. Saudi Arabia continues to condition any agreement on substantive progress toward a Palestinian state or a durable Gaza ceasefire, conditions that have not been met amid persistent regional hostilities. Recent diplomatic statements from Riyadh and Washington have reiterated these prerequisites without signaling imminent breakthroughs, while U.S. policy shifts and Israeli coalition dynamics have not produced new incentives sufficient to accelerate the process. Traders view the five-month window as too narrow for the required multilateral negotiations, legislative approvals, and security arrangements, consistent with historical patterns where such deals required extended periods of de-escalation and verified concessions.