Saudi Arabia has maintained its precondition of substantive progress toward Palestinian statehood, including East Jerusalem as capital, as a non-negotiable requirement for normalization with Israel, a stance reiterated in 2025-2026 official statements amid persistent regional conflicts. Hostile domestic public opinion, with surveys showing near-universal opposition, combined with Saudi assessments of elevated risks from closer Israeli ties, has led Riyadh to prioritize independent security arrangements such as its mutual defense pact with Pakistan. Recent developments, including Israel's expanded operations and stalled U.S.-mediated talks despite nuclear cooperation overtures, have further diminished shared incentives and kept formal diplomatic engagement off the agenda. With months remaining before the 2027 deadline and no evident breakthrough in bilateral or multilateral channels, trader consensus reflects these entrenched political and procedural barriers.