**Ongoing restrictions and unresolved negotiations between Iran, Oman, and the US continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly transits well below historical norms.** The waterway has operated under a de facto blockade since late February 2026, with daily crossings recently reported in the low single digits to low teens—far below the pre-crisis average exceeding 60 vessels per day—due to Iranian controls, insurance exclusions, and sanctions risks that deter most Western-linked carriers. Recent developments reinforce low-volume expectations for the week of August 10. Iran’s August 6 draft plan proposing bans on U.S. and Israeli vessels, prior clearance requirements, and potential fees of 5–7% of cargo value has prompted sharp oil price increases while complicating any near-term reopening. Ongoing talks on new routing and an interim agreement have produced only marginal increases in open transits (dominated by Iranian- and Chinese-linked ships), with industry sources citing unworkable compliance burdens under existing war-risk clauses and U.S. sanctions. Absent a finalized deal or major de-escalation in the next few days, trader consensus prices the 25–49 range highest, reflecting persistent chokepoint friction rather than a full return to normal flows.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
25-49 42%
<25 40%
50-74 28%
75-99 26%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 16, 2026
<25
25%
25-49
42%
50-74
28%
75-99
26%
100+
25%
25-49 42%
<25 40%
50-74 28%
75-99 26%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 16, 2026
<25
$3 Обс.
25%
25-49
$0 Обс.
42%
50-74
$0 Обс.
28%
75-99
$0 Обс.
26%
100+
$0 Обс.
25%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing restrictions and unresolved negotiations between Iran, Oman, and the US continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly transits well below historical norms.** The waterway has operated under a de facto blockade since late February 2026, with daily crossings recently reported in the low single digits to low teens—far below the pre-crisis average exceeding 60 vessels per day—due to Iranian controls, insurance exclusions, and sanctions risks that deter most Western-linked carriers.
Recent developments reinforce low-volume expectations for the week of August 10. Iran’s August 6 draft plan proposing bans on U.S. and Israeli vessels, prior clearance requirements, and potential fees of 5–7% of cargo value has prompted sharp oil price increases while complicating any near-term reopening. Ongoing talks on new routing and an interim agreement have produced only marginal increases in open transits (dominated by Iranian- and Chinese-linked ships), with industry sources citing unworkable compliance burdens under existing war-risk clauses and U.S. sanctions. Absent a finalized deal or major de-escalation in the next few days, trader consensus prices the 25–49 range highest, reflecting persistent chokepoint friction rather than a full return to normal flows.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Обсяг
$3Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing restrictions and unresolved negotiations between Iran, Oman, and the US continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly transits well below historical norms.** The waterway has operated under a de facto blockade since late February 2026, with daily crossings recently reported in the low single digits to low teens—far below the pre-crisis average exceeding 60 vessels per day—due to Iranian controls, insurance exclusions, and sanctions risks that deter most Western-linked carriers.
Recent developments reinforce low-volume expectations for the week of August 10. Iran’s August 6 draft plan proposing bans on U.S. and Israeli vessels, prior clearance requirements, and potential fees of 5–7% of cargo value has prompted sharp oil price increases while complicating any near-term reopening. Ongoing talks on new routing and an interim agreement have produced only marginal increases in open transits (dominated by Iranian- and Chinese-linked ships), with industry sources citing unworkable compliance burdens under existing war-risk clauses and U.S. sanctions. Absent a finalized deal or major de-escalation in the next few days, trader consensus prices the 25–49 range highest, reflecting persistent chokepoint friction rather than a full return to normal flows.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Обсяг
$3Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing restrictions and unresolved negotiations between Iran, Oman, and the US continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly transits well below historical norms.** The waterway has operated under a de facto blockade since late February 2026, with daily crossings recently reported in the low single digits to low teens—far below the pre-crisis average exceeding 60 vessels per day—due to Iranian controls, insurance exclusions, and sanctions risks that deter most Western-linked carriers. Recent developments reinforce low-volume expectations for the week of August 10. Iran’s August 6 draft plan proposing bans on U.S. and Israeli vessels, prior clearance requirements, and potential fees of 5–7% of cargo value has prompted sharp oil price increases while complicating any near-term reopening. Ongoing talks on new routing and an interim agreement have produced only marginal increases in open transits (dominated by Iranian- and Chinese-linked ships), with industry sources citing unworkable compliance burdens under existing war-risk clauses and U.S. sanctions. Absent a finalized deal or major de-escalation in the next few days, trader consensus prices the 25–49 range highest, reflecting persistent chokepoint friction rather than a full return to normal flows.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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