Escalating US-Iran naval tensions and repeated shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have driven sustained oil price volatility and elevated war-risk premiums since February 2026, with Brent crude and tanker rates reflecting persistent supply-chain risks through the key energy chokepoint. US Central Command’s ongoing destroyer and mine-countermeasure deployments, combined with European preparations by the UK and France to escort vessels, underscore coalition-building efforts that directly influence maritime insurance costs and energy futures. Recent July strikes and reinstated blockades have heightened uncertainty ahead of the August 31 resolution, while diplomatic signals around ceasefires introduce swing factors that could shift implied probabilities for additional national transits and associated commodity hedging activity.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
US
27%
UK
6%
France
5%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
5%
Australia
4%
Greece
3%
Italy
2%
$2,538 Обс.
US
$751 Обс.
27%
UK
$301 Обс.
6%
France
$0 Обс.
5%
Germany
$519 Обс.
5%
Netherlands
$0 Обс.
5%
Australia
$851 Обс.
4%
Greece
$31 Обс.
3%
Italy
$85 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Escalating US-Iran naval tensions and repeated shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have driven sustained oil price volatility and elevated war-risk premiums since February 2026, with Brent crude and tanker rates reflecting persistent supply-chain risks through the key energy chokepoint. US Central Command’s ongoing destroyer and mine-countermeasure deployments, combined with European preparations by the UK and France to escort vessels, underscore coalition-building efforts that directly influence maritime insurance costs and energy futures. Recent July strikes and reinstated blockades have heightened uncertainty ahead of the August 31 resolution, while diplomatic signals around ceasefires introduce swing factors that could shift implied probabilities for additional national transits and associated commodity hedging activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,538Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Escalating US-Iran naval tensions and repeated shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have driven sustained oil price volatility and elevated war-risk premiums since February 2026, with Brent crude and tanker rates reflecting persistent supply-chain risks through the key energy chokepoint. US Central Command’s ongoing destroyer and mine-countermeasure deployments, combined with European preparations by the UK and France to escort vessels, underscore coalition-building efforts that directly influence maritime insurance costs and energy futures. Recent July strikes and reinstated blockades have heightened uncertainty ahead of the August 31 resolution, while diplomatic signals around ceasefires introduce swing factors that could shift implied probabilities for additional national transits and associated commodity hedging activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Обсяг
$2,538Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating US-Iran naval tensions and repeated shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have driven sustained oil price volatility and elevated war-risk premiums since February 2026, with Brent crude and tanker rates reflecting persistent supply-chain risks through the key energy chokepoint. US Central Command’s ongoing destroyer and mine-countermeasure deployments, combined with European preparations by the UK and France to escort vessels, underscore coalition-building efforts that directly influence maritime insurance costs and energy futures. Recent July strikes and reinstated blockades have heightened uncertainty ahead of the August 31 resolution, while diplomatic signals around ceasefires introduce swing factors that could shift implied probabilities for additional national transits and associated commodity hedging activity.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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