Ongoing Red Sea security risks tied to Houthi activity continue to shape trader positioning in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit market, with the tight 37%–35% split between the 30–34 and 25–29 bins underscoring uncertainty over near-term volume recovery. Shipping lines weigh elevated war-risk premiums and potential vessel exposure against the longer Cape of Good Hope route, while global container and energy trade flows provide the underlying demand baseline. Recent insurer repricing and selective convoy arrangements have offered limited support for incremental transits, yet persistent threat assessments keep many operators sidelined. With August resolution approaching, any de-escalation signals or confirmed attacks in the final weeks could shift implied probabilities between the leading bins, as markets price aggregated capital-at-risk views rather than point forecasts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
30-34 36%
25-29 34%
35-39 16%
<25 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
<25
9%
25-29
34%
30-34
36%
35-39
16%
40+
6%
30-34 36%
25-29 34%
35-39 16%
<25 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
<25
$130 Обс.
9%
25-29
$205 Обс.
34%
30-34
$387 Обс.
36%
35-39
$306 Обс.
16%
40+
$48 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Red Sea security risks tied to Houthi activity continue to shape trader positioning in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit market, with the tight 37%–35% split between the 30–34 and 25–29 bins underscoring uncertainty over near-term volume recovery. Shipping lines weigh elevated war-risk premiums and potential vessel exposure against the longer Cape of Good Hope route, while global container and energy trade flows provide the underlying demand baseline. Recent insurer repricing and selective convoy arrangements have offered limited support for incremental transits, yet persistent threat assessments keep many operators sidelined. With August resolution approaching, any de-escalation signals or confirmed attacks in the final weeks could shift implied probabilities between the leading bins, as markets price aggregated capital-at-risk views rather than point forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,075Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETДжерело вирішення
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Red Sea security risks tied to Houthi activity continue to shape trader positioning in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit market, with the tight 37%–35% split between the 30–34 and 25–29 bins underscoring uncertainty over near-term volume recovery. Shipping lines weigh elevated war-risk premiums and potential vessel exposure against the longer Cape of Good Hope route, while global container and energy trade flows provide the underlying demand baseline. Recent insurer repricing and selective convoy arrangements have offered limited support for incremental transits, yet persistent threat assessments keep many operators sidelined. With August resolution approaching, any de-escalation signals or confirmed attacks in the final weeks could shift implied probabilities between the leading bins, as markets price aggregated capital-at-risk views rather than point forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Обсяг
$1,075Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETДжерело вирішення
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Red Sea security risks tied to Houthi activity continue to shape trader positioning in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit market, with the tight 37%–35% split between the 30–34 and 25–29 bins underscoring uncertainty over near-term volume recovery. Shipping lines weigh elevated war-risk premiums and potential vessel exposure against the longer Cape of Good Hope route, while global container and energy trade flows provide the underlying demand baseline. Recent insurer repricing and selective convoy arrangements have offered limited support for incremental transits, yet persistent threat assessments keep many operators sidelined. With August resolution approaching, any de-escalation signals or confirmed attacks in the final weeks could shift implied probabilities between the leading bins, as markets price aggregated capital-at-risk views rather than point forecasts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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