Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities and renewed threats have driven sharp daily volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with commodity vessel counts swinging from a post-2023 peak near 39 to lows of 11, keeping weekly totals uncertain around the 180-220 threshold. Traders price in competing forces: cautious operator rerouting around the Cape amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums and potential further disruptions versus gradual confidence recovery if tensions ease. Macro factors including oil price sensitivity to Red Sea flows, freight rate pressures, and global supply-chain costs reinforce the tight contest between sub-180 and 220-plus outcomes, with resolution hinging on near-term attack frequency and carrier announcements.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?
220+ 50%
<180 50%
200-219 47%
180-199 46%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 9, 2026
<180
50%
180-199
46%
200-219
47%
220+
50%
220+ 50%
<180 50%
200-219 47%
180-199 46%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 9, 2026
<180
$0 Обс.
50%
180-199
$0 Обс.
46%
200-219
$0 Обс.
47%
220+
$0 Обс.
50%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities and renewed threats have driven sharp daily volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with commodity vessel counts swinging from a post-2023 peak near 39 to lows of 11, keeping weekly totals uncertain around the 180-220 threshold. Traders price in competing forces: cautious operator rerouting around the Cape amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums and potential further disruptions versus gradual confidence recovery if tensions ease. Macro factors including oil price sensitivity to Red Sea flows, freight rate pressures, and global supply-chain costs reinforce the tight contest between sub-180 and 220-plus outcomes, with resolution hinging on near-term attack frequency and carrier announcements.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Aug 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities and renewed threats have driven sharp daily volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with commodity vessel counts swinging from a post-2023 peak near 39 to lows of 11, keeping weekly totals uncertain around the 180-220 threshold. Traders price in competing forces: cautious operator rerouting around the Cape amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums and potential further disruptions versus gradual confidence recovery if tensions ease. Macro factors including oil price sensitivity to Red Sea flows, freight rate pressures, and global supply-chain costs reinforce the tight contest between sub-180 and 220-plus outcomes, with resolution hinging on near-term attack frequency and carrier announcements.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Aug 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities and renewed threats have driven sharp daily volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with commodity vessel counts swinging from a post-2023 peak near 39 to lows of 11, keeping weekly totals uncertain around the 180-220 threshold. Traders price in competing forces: cautious operator rerouting around the Cape amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums and potential further disruptions versus gradual confidence recovery if tensions ease. Macro factors including oil price sensitivity to Red Sea flows, freight rate pressures, and global supply-chain costs reinforce the tight contest between sub-180 and 220-plus outcomes, with resolution hinging on near-term attack frequency and carrier announcements.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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