Recent Houthi threats of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-bound vessels, followed by their denial of new transit fees on August 1, have created balanced trader sentiment around Bab el-Mandeb volumes for the week of August 3. Daily transits recently climbed to 28 amid hopes of de-escalation in related U.S.-Iran tensions but remain well below pre-disruption averages, with carriers continuing Cape of Good Hope reroutes due to elevated insurance and security costs. The near-even implied probabilities across ranges below 180 and above 220 reflect uncertainty over whether geopolitical risks will sustain suppressed flows or allow a rebound in container, bulk, and energy shipments. Key swing factors include any fresh Houthi actions or Saudi responses, alongside real-time vessel tracking data that could shift market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?
<180 45%
220+ 45%
180-199 44%
200-219 41%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 9, 2026
<180
45%
180-199
44%
200-219
41%
220+
45%
<180 45%
220+ 45%
180-199 44%
200-219 41%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 9, 2026
<180
$0 Обс.
45%
180-199
$0 Обс.
44%
200-219
$0 Обс.
41%
220+
$0 Обс.
45%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-bound vessels, followed by their denial of new transit fees on August 1, have created balanced trader sentiment around Bab el-Mandeb volumes for the week of August 3. Daily transits recently climbed to 28 amid hopes of de-escalation in related U.S.-Iran tensions but remain well below pre-disruption averages, with carriers continuing Cape of Good Hope reroutes due to elevated insurance and security costs. The near-even implied probabilities across ranges below 180 and above 220 reflect uncertainty over whether geopolitical risks will sustain suppressed flows or allow a rebound in container, bulk, and energy shipments. Key swing factors include any fresh Houthi actions or Saudi responses, alongside real-time vessel tracking data that could shift market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Aug 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-bound vessels, followed by their denial of new transit fees on August 1, have created balanced trader sentiment around Bab el-Mandeb volumes for the week of August 3. Daily transits recently climbed to 28 amid hopes of de-escalation in related U.S.-Iran tensions but remain well below pre-disruption averages, with carriers continuing Cape of Good Hope reroutes due to elevated insurance and security costs. The near-even implied probabilities across ranges below 180 and above 220 reflect uncertainty over whether geopolitical risks will sustain suppressed flows or allow a rebound in container, bulk, and energy shipments. Key swing factors include any fresh Houthi actions or Saudi responses, alongside real-time vessel tracking data that could shift market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Aug 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-bound vessels, followed by their denial of new transit fees on August 1, have created balanced trader sentiment around Bab el-Mandeb volumes for the week of August 3. Daily transits recently climbed to 28 amid hopes of de-escalation in related U.S.-Iran tensions but remain well below pre-disruption averages, with carriers continuing Cape of Good Hope reroutes due to elevated insurance and security costs. The near-even implied probabilities across ranges below 180 and above 220 reflect uncertainty over whether geopolitical risks will sustain suppressed flows or allow a rebound in container, bulk, and energy shipments. Key swing factors include any fresh Houthi actions or Saudi responses, alongside real-time vessel tracking data that could shift market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання