The Iranian regime's survival through leadership decapitation during the early 2026 US-Israeli conflict, widespread protests suppressed by security forces, and sustained economic sanctions has reinforced trader expectations of continuity. Successive appointments of hardline military and clerical figures, including Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and loyalists to key security posts, have consolidated control and deterred elite defections. Recent diplomatic steps, such as the US-Iran memorandum on maritime access, alongside ongoing repression and economic adaptation, have further stabilized the system against rapid upheaval. With the September 30 resolution window closing soon and no verified indicators of imminent mass mobilization or institutional fracture, market pricing reflects the regime's proven capacity to endure acute pressure in the near term, though unforeseen escalations or coordinated internal shifts remain theoretical variables.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
1% шанс
$1,966,323 Обс.
$1,966,323 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
1% шанс
$1,966,323 Обс.
$1,966,323 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through leadership decapitation during the early 2026 US-Israeli conflict, widespread protests suppressed by security forces, and sustained economic sanctions has reinforced trader expectations of continuity. Successive appointments of hardline military and clerical figures, including Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and loyalists to key security posts, have consolidated control and deterred elite defections. Recent diplomatic steps, such as the US-Iran memorandum on maritime access, alongside ongoing repression and economic adaptation, have further stabilized the system against rapid upheaval. With the September 30 resolution window closing soon and no verified indicators of imminent mass mobilization or institutional fracture, market pricing reflects the regime's proven capacity to endure acute pressure in the near term, though unforeseen escalations or coordinated internal shifts remain theoretical variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,966,323Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through leadership decapitation during the early 2026 US-Israeli conflict, widespread protests suppressed by security forces, and sustained economic sanctions has reinforced trader expectations of continuity. Successive appointments of hardline military and clerical figures, including Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and loyalists to key security posts, have consolidated control and deterred elite defections. Recent diplomatic steps, such as the US-Iran memorandum on maritime access, alongside ongoing repression and economic adaptation, have further stabilized the system against rapid upheaval. With the September 30 resolution window closing soon and no verified indicators of imminent mass mobilization or institutional fracture, market pricing reflects the regime's proven capacity to endure acute pressure in the near term, though unforeseen escalations or coordinated internal shifts remain theoretical variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$1,966,323Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's survival through leadership decapitation during the early 2026 US-Israeli conflict, widespread protests suppressed by security forces, and sustained economic sanctions has reinforced trader expectations of continuity. Successive appointments of hardline military and clerical figures, including Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and loyalists to key security posts, have consolidated control and deterred elite defections. Recent diplomatic steps, such as the US-Iran memorandum on maritime access, alongside ongoing repression and economic adaptation, have further stabilized the system against rapid upheaval. With the September 30 resolution window closing soon and no verified indicators of imminent mass mobilization or institutional fracture, market pricing reflects the regime's proven capacity to endure acute pressure in the near term, though unforeseen escalations or coordinated internal shifts remain theoretical variables.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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