The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.78% with intraday peaks above 4.79% in early September 2026, has risen primarily on elevated term premiums driven by heavy fiscal deficits exceeding $2 trillion annually and record Treasury issuance amid $40 trillion in national debt. Persistent core inflation near 3%, geopolitical oil-price shocks from Middle East tensions, and robust corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure have reinforced real-rate pressures, while new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications have tempered expectations for near-term easing. Market-implied odds reflect a higher structural floor for yields, with upcoming CPI releases, FOMC decisions, and supply schedules likely to influence whether levels test or exceed prior 2025 highs before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$312,197 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
4.8%
94%
5.0%
49%
5.2%
26%
5.5%
5%
5.7%
4%
6.0%
4%
$312,197 Обс.
4.8%
$67,390 Обс.
94%
5.0%
$89,684 Обс.
49%
5.2%
$31,958 Обс.
26%
5.5%
$8,642 Обс.
5%
5.7%
$4,310 Обс.
4%
6.0%
$3,927 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.78% with intraday peaks above 4.79% in early September 2026, has risen primarily on elevated term premiums driven by heavy fiscal deficits exceeding $2 trillion annually and record Treasury issuance amid $40 trillion in national debt. Persistent core inflation near 3%, geopolitical oil-price shocks from Middle East tensions, and robust corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure have reinforced real-rate pressures, while new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications have tempered expectations for near-term easing. Market-implied odds reflect a higher structural floor for yields, with upcoming CPI releases, FOMC decisions, and supply schedules likely to influence whether levels test or exceed prior 2025 highs before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$312,197Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.78% with intraday peaks above 4.79% in early September 2026, has risen primarily on elevated term premiums driven by heavy fiscal deficits exceeding $2 trillion annually and record Treasury issuance amid $40 trillion in national debt. Persistent core inflation near 3%, geopolitical oil-price shocks from Middle East tensions, and robust corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure have reinforced real-rate pressures, while new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications have tempered expectations for near-term easing. Market-implied odds reflect a higher structural floor for yields, with upcoming CPI releases, FOMC decisions, and supply schedules likely to influence whether levels test or exceed prior 2025 highs before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Обсяг
$312,197Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.78% with intraday peaks above 4.79% in early September 2026, has risen primarily on elevated term premiums driven by heavy fiscal deficits exceeding $2 trillion annually and record Treasury issuance amid $40 trillion in national debt. Persistent core inflation near 3%, geopolitical oil-price shocks from Middle East tensions, and robust corporate borrowing for AI infrastructure have reinforced real-rate pressures, while new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications have tempered expectations for near-term easing. Market-implied odds reflect a higher structural floor for yields, with upcoming CPI releases, FOMC decisions, and supply schedules likely to influence whether levels test or exceed prior 2025 highs before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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