Current numerical weather models, including GFS guidance, point to a maximum temperature of 27–28°C in Madrid on September 18 under mostly clear skies and light easterly winds, supporting the market’s leading 52.5% implied probability for 28°C. This outlook reflects a stable high-pressure pattern with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation chances, allowing daytime radiative heating while overnight lows near 16–18°C limit carryover warmth. Recent cooling from earlier September warmth, when highs exceeded 34°C, has tempered expectations toward near-normal late-summer values around 26°C climatology. Updated model runs and official agency briefings through the evening of September 17 remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
28°C 53%
27°C 28%
29°C 15%
26°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 18, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
4%
27°C
28%
28°C
53%
29°C
15%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 53%
27°C 28%
29°C 15%
26°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 18, 2026
22°C or below
$103 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$103 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$280 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$85 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$374 Обс.
4%
27°C
$1,400 Обс.
28%
28°C
$840 Обс.
53%
29°C
$1,189 Обс.
15%
30°C
$85 Обс.
1%
31°C
$91 Обс.
<1%
32°C or higher
$338 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather models, including GFS guidance, point to a maximum temperature of 27–28°C in Madrid on September 18 under mostly clear skies and light easterly winds, supporting the market’s leading 52.5% implied probability for 28°C. This outlook reflects a stable high-pressure pattern with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation chances, allowing daytime radiative heating while overnight lows near 16–18°C limit carryover warmth. Recent cooling from earlier September warmth, when highs exceeded 34°C, has tempered expectations toward near-normal late-summer values around 26°C climatology. Updated model runs and official agency briefings through the evening of September 17 remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$4,889Дата завершення
Sep 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather models, including GFS guidance, point to a maximum temperature of 27–28°C in Madrid on September 18 under mostly clear skies and light easterly winds, supporting the market’s leading 52.5% implied probability for 28°C. This outlook reflects a stable high-pressure pattern with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation chances, allowing daytime radiative heating while overnight lows near 16–18°C limit carryover warmth. Recent cooling from earlier September warmth, when highs exceeded 34°C, has tempered expectations toward near-normal late-summer values around 26°C climatology. Updated model runs and official agency briefings through the evening of September 17 remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$4,889Дата завершення
Sep 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather models, including GFS guidance, point to a maximum temperature of 27–28°C in Madrid on September 18 under mostly clear skies and light easterly winds, supporting the market’s leading 52.5% implied probability for 28°C. This outlook reflects a stable high-pressure pattern with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation chances, allowing daytime radiative heating while overnight lows near 16–18°C limit carryover warmth. Recent cooling from earlier September warmth, when highs exceeded 34°C, has tempered expectations toward near-normal late-summer values around 26°C climatology. Updated model runs and official agency briefings through the evening of September 17 remain the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in trader consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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