Official forecasts from AEMET and European models such as the Met Office and ECMWF indicate a highest temperature of 35–36 °C in Madrid on August 19, driven by persistent high-pressure subsidence, clear skies, and light north-easterly flow that limits cloud cover and moisture while allowing diurnal heating under typical late-summer insolation. Recent model runs show minimal day-to-day shifts, with consensus highs near 35 °C amid a broader pattern of above-average August warmth across the Iberian Peninsula following earlier 2026 heat episodes. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly on these values, reflecting trader assessment of stable steering patterns and low precipitation chances that reduce cooling potential, though small adjustments could occur with updated 48-hour guidance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on August 19?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 19?
36°C 51%
35°C 26%
37°C 22%
34°C 5%
НОВЕ
$14,959 Обс.
НОВЕ
$14,959 Обс.
Aug 19, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
5%
35°C
26%
36°C
51%
37°C
22%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
36°C 51%
35°C 26%
37°C 22%
34°C 5%
НОВЕ
$14,959 Обс.
НОВЕ
$14,959 Обс.
Aug 19, 2026
32°C or below
$468 Обс.
<1%
33°C
$1,058 Обс.
1%
34°C
$619 Обс.
5%
35°C
$2,426 Обс.
26%
36°C
$4,957 Обс.
51%
37°C
$3,656 Обс.
22%
38°C
$652 Обс.
1%
39°C
$653 Обс.
<1%
40°C
$220 Обс.
<1%
41°C
$125 Обс.
<1%
42°C or higher
$125 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from AEMET and European models such as the Met Office and ECMWF indicate a highest temperature of 35–36 °C in Madrid on August 19, driven by persistent high-pressure subsidence, clear skies, and light north-easterly flow that limits cloud cover and moisture while allowing diurnal heating under typical late-summer insolation. Recent model runs show minimal day-to-day shifts, with consensus highs near 35 °C amid a broader pattern of above-average August warmth across the Iberian Peninsula following earlier 2026 heat episodes. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly on these values, reflecting trader assessment of stable steering patterns and low precipitation chances that reduce cooling potential, though small adjustments could occur with updated 48-hour guidance.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$14,959Дата завершення
Aug 19, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from AEMET and European models such as the Met Office and ECMWF indicate a highest temperature of 35–36 °C in Madrid on August 19, driven by persistent high-pressure subsidence, clear skies, and light north-easterly flow that limits cloud cover and moisture while allowing diurnal heating under typical late-summer insolation. Recent model runs show minimal day-to-day shifts, with consensus highs near 35 °C amid a broader pattern of above-average August warmth across the Iberian Peninsula following earlier 2026 heat episodes. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly on these values, reflecting trader assessment of stable steering patterns and low precipitation chances that reduce cooling potential, though small adjustments could occur with updated 48-hour guidance.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$14,959Дата завершення
Aug 19, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from AEMET and European models such as the Met Office and ECMWF indicate a highest temperature of 35–36 °C in Madrid on August 19, driven by persistent high-pressure subsidence, clear skies, and light north-easterly flow that limits cloud cover and moisture while allowing diurnal heating under typical late-summer insolation. Recent model runs show minimal day-to-day shifts, with consensus highs near 35 °C amid a broader pattern of above-average August warmth across the Iberian Peninsula following earlier 2026 heat episodes. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly on these values, reflecting trader assessment of stable steering patterns and low precipitation chances that reduce cooling potential, though small adjustments could occur with updated 48-hour guidance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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