Skip to main content
icon for 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

icon for 2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

1st hottest 95.0%

3rd hottest 3.0%

2nd hottest 2.0%

4th or lower <1%

Polymarket

$170,615 Обс.

1st hottest 95.0%

3rd hottest 3.0%

2nd hottest 2.0%

4th or lower <1%

Polymarket

$170,615 Обс.

1st hottest

$85,263 Обс.

95%

2nd hottest

$34,074 Обс.

2%

3rd hottest

$35,792 Обс.

3%

4th or lower

$15,487 Обс.

1%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.The market-implied odds of 95% for July 1-3 2026 ranking as the hottest on record are driven by confirmed extreme early-July heat amid record global warmth, including a North American heatwave that broke numerous local temperature records alongside the second-warmest June globally per Copernicus and NOAA analyses. A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C, has amplified baseline temperatures already elevated by long-term anthropogenic warming and marine heatwaves. Historical context shows such conditions frequently produce new daily or multi-day peaks, though final global rankings depend on post-processed datasets from agencies like NOAA or NASA and could shift with model revisions or measurement refinements.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.

Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Обсяг
$170,615
Дата завершення
Jul 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.The market-implied odds of 95% for July 1-3 2026 ranking as the hottest on record are driven by confirmed extreme early-July heat amid record global warmth, including a North American heatwave that broke numerous local temperature records alongside the second-warmest June globally per Copernicus and NOAA analyses. A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C, has amplified baseline temperatures already elevated by long-term anthropogenic warming and marine heatwaves. Historical context shows such conditions frequently produce new daily or multi-day peaks, though final global rankings depend on post-processed datasets from agencies like NOAA or NASA and could shift with model revisions or measurement refinements.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.

Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Обсяг
$170,615
Дата завершення
Jul 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Пов'язане

icon for Will August 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

Will August 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

76%
icon for Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026?

Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in July 2026?

95%
icon for Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026?

Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026?

79%

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 4 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «1st hottest» з 95%, далі «3rd hottest» з 3%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?» згенерував $170.6K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Jul 6, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?», перегляньте 4 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?» — «1st hottest» з 95%. Наступний — «3rd hottest» з 3%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.