Recent global temperature analyses show 2026 tracking near or above prior record years through mid-year, with strong land and ocean heat anomalies supporting elevated daily extremes in early August. Widespread heatwaves, including South Korea’s national record of 42.5 °C on August 2 and record highs across parts of the U.S. Southwest and Europe around August 1–3, align with model consensus for persistent high-pressure patterns and above-average sea-surface temperatures. These conditions, building on the long-term warming trend and recent monthly rankings (June 2026 second-warmest on record), have driven trader consensus toward August 1 establishing a new global daily mean temperature peak. Upcoming Copernicus and NOAA updates on daily anomalies will refine resolution as final data are incorporated.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 84%
2nd hottest 22%
3rd hottest 5%
4th or lower 3.3%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
1st hottest
76%
2nd hottest
22%
3rd hottest
5%
4th or lower
3%
1st hottest 84%
2nd hottest 22%
3rd hottest 5%
4th or lower 3.3%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
1st hottest
$170 Обс.
76%
2nd hottest
$86 Обс.
22%
3rd hottest
$96 Обс.
5%
4th or lower
$95 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent global temperature analyses show 2026 tracking near or above prior record years through mid-year, with strong land and ocean heat anomalies supporting elevated daily extremes in early August. Widespread heatwaves, including South Korea’s national record of 42.5 °C on August 2 and record highs across parts of the U.S. Southwest and Europe around August 1–3, align with model consensus for persistent high-pressure patterns and above-average sea-surface temperatures. These conditions, building on the long-term warming trend and recent monthly rankings (June 2026 second-warmest on record), have driven trader consensus toward August 1 establishing a new global daily mean temperature peak. Upcoming Copernicus and NOAA updates on daily anomalies will refine resolution as final data are incorporated.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$446Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent global temperature analyses show 2026 tracking near or above prior record years through mid-year, with strong land and ocean heat anomalies supporting elevated daily extremes in early August. Widespread heatwaves, including South Korea’s national record of 42.5 °C on August 2 and record highs across parts of the U.S. Southwest and Europe around August 1–3, align with model consensus for persistent high-pressure patterns and above-average sea-surface temperatures. These conditions, building on the long-term warming trend and recent monthly rankings (June 2026 second-warmest on record), have driven trader consensus toward August 1 establishing a new global daily mean temperature peak. Upcoming Copernicus and NOAA updates on daily anomalies will refine resolution as final data are incorporated.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Обсяг
$446Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global temperature analyses show 2026 tracking near or above prior record years through mid-year, with strong land and ocean heat anomalies supporting elevated daily extremes in early August. Widespread heatwaves, including South Korea’s national record of 42.5 °C on August 2 and record highs across parts of the U.S. Southwest and Europe around August 1–3, align with model consensus for persistent high-pressure patterns and above-average sea-surface temperatures. These conditions, building on the long-term warming trend and recent monthly rankings (June 2026 second-warmest on record), have driven trader consensus toward August 1 establishing a new global daily mean temperature peak. Upcoming Copernicus and NOAA updates on daily anomalies will refine resolution as final data are incorporated.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання