**Trader sentiment for Tokyo’s peak temperature on August 18, 2026, centers on 30–32 °C, with 31 °C holding the clearest lead at 45 % implied probability.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued in the days leading up to the date project a maximum of 33 °C under mostly cloudy skies, while independent models cluster between 31–32 °C (roughly 88–90 °F). These values align closely with Tokyo’s long-term August climatology of ~31 °C average highs, tempered this year by persistent cloud cover and moderate humidity that limits extreme surface heating. Recent model runs and observational trends show limited upward revision potential: the urban heat-island effect and typical late-summer steering patterns favor steady rather than surging maxima, keeping probabilities for 33 °C or higher below 10 %. Lower outcomes (29 °C or below) receive modest support only if thicker cloud decks or localized showers develop, scenarios currently assigned low likelihood by consensus guidance. As the day progresses, traders will continue weighting any intraday JMA updates or rapid changes in insolation against the established 30–32 °C window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?
31°C 40%
30°C 31%
32°C 16%
33°C 8%
BAGO
$33,176 Vol.
BAGO
$33,176 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
7%
30°C
31%
31°C
40%
32°C
16%
33°C
8%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 40%
30°C 31%
32°C 16%
33°C 8%
BAGO
$33,176 Vol.
BAGO
$33,176 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
$686 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$583 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,085 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$4,258 Vol.
1%
29°C
$2,956 Vol.
7%
30°C
$3,901 Vol.
31%
31°C
$5,250 Vol.
40%
32°C
$4,838 Vol.
16%
33°C
$3,733 Vol.
8%
34°C
$2,076 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$2,812 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Tokyo’s peak temperature on August 18, 2026, centers on 30–32 °C, with 31 °C holding the clearest lead at 45 % implied probability.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued in the days leading up to the date project a maximum of 33 °C under mostly cloudy skies, while independent models cluster between 31–32 °C (roughly 88–90 °F). These values align closely with Tokyo’s long-term August climatology of ~31 °C average highs, tempered this year by persistent cloud cover and moderate humidity that limits extreme surface heating.
Recent model runs and observational trends show limited upward revision potential: the urban heat-island effect and typical late-summer steering patterns favor steady rather than surging maxima, keeping probabilities for 33 °C or higher below 10 %. Lower outcomes (29 °C or below) receive modest support only if thicker cloud decks or localized showers develop, scenarios currently assigned low likelihood by consensus guidance. As the day progresses, traders will continue weighting any intraday JMA updates or rapid changes in insolation against the established 30–32 °C window.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$33,176Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 18, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Tokyo’s peak temperature on August 18, 2026, centers on 30–32 °C, with 31 °C holding the clearest lead at 45 % implied probability.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued in the days leading up to the date project a maximum of 33 °C under mostly cloudy skies, while independent models cluster between 31–32 °C (roughly 88–90 °F). These values align closely with Tokyo’s long-term August climatology of ~31 °C average highs, tempered this year by persistent cloud cover and moderate humidity that limits extreme surface heating.
Recent model runs and observational trends show limited upward revision potential: the urban heat-island effect and typical late-summer steering patterns favor steady rather than surging maxima, keeping probabilities for 33 °C or higher below 10 %. Lower outcomes (29 °C or below) receive modest support only if thicker cloud decks or localized showers develop, scenarios currently assigned low likelihood by consensus guidance. As the day progresses, traders will continue weighting any intraday JMA updates or rapid changes in insolation against the established 30–32 °C window.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33,176Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 18, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Tokyo’s peak temperature on August 18, 2026, centers on 30–32 °C, with 31 °C holding the clearest lead at 45 % implied probability.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued in the days leading up to the date project a maximum of 33 °C under mostly cloudy skies, while independent models cluster between 31–32 °C (roughly 88–90 °F). These values align closely with Tokyo’s long-term August climatology of ~31 °C average highs, tempered this year by persistent cloud cover and moderate humidity that limits extreme surface heating. Recent model runs and observational trends show limited upward revision potential: the urban heat-island effect and typical late-summer steering patterns favor steady rather than surging maxima, keeping probabilities for 33 °C or higher below 10 %. Lower outcomes (29 °C or below) receive modest support only if thicker cloud decks or localized showers develop, scenarios currently assigned low likelihood by consensus guidance. As the day progresses, traders will continue weighting any intraday JMA updates or rapid changes in insolation against the established 30–32 °C window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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