Recent official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and the UK Met Office converge on a Madrid maximum of 35–36 °C for August 19, 2026, under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southwesterly flow. These conditions favor strong daytime insolation with minimal cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures, placing the expected peak squarely in the market’s leading 36 °C bin (54 % implied probability). Seasonal climatology for mid-August shows typical highs near 33–35 °C, so the current setup reflects a modest positive anomaly rather than extreme heat. Model consensus remains tight, with limited spread that could shift the outcome to 37 °C only if afternoon mixing or slight warming aloft exceeds guidance; conversely, any increase in boundary-layer moisture or earlier cloud development would favor 35 °C. With resolution occurring within 24 hours, traders are weighting the latest AEMET guidance most heavily, anchoring the distribution around the 35–37 °C cluster.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in Madrid on August 19?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 19?
36°C 55%
37°C 22%
35°C 20%
34°C 3%
BAGO
$15,888 Vol.
BAGO
$15,888 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
3%
35°C
20%
36°C
55%
37°C
22%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
36°C 55%
37°C 22%
35°C 20%
34°C 3%
BAGO
$15,888 Vol.
BAGO
$15,888 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
32°C or below
$468 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$1,176 Vol.
1%
34°C
$875 Vol.
3%
35°C
$2,526 Vol.
20%
36°C
$5,305 Vol.
55%
37°C
$3,710 Vol.
22%
38°C
$662 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$696 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$220 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$125 Vol.
<1%
42°C or higher
$125 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and the UK Met Office converge on a Madrid maximum of 35–36 °C for August 19, 2026, under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southwesterly flow. These conditions favor strong daytime insolation with minimal cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures, placing the expected peak squarely in the market’s leading 36 °C bin (54 % implied probability). Seasonal climatology for mid-August shows typical highs near 33–35 °C, so the current setup reflects a modest positive anomaly rather than extreme heat. Model consensus remains tight, with limited spread that could shift the outcome to 37 °C only if afternoon mixing or slight warming aloft exceeds guidance; conversely, any increase in boundary-layer moisture or earlier cloud development would favor 35 °C. With resolution occurring within 24 hours, traders are weighting the latest AEMET guidance most heavily, anchoring the distribution around the 35–37 °C cluster.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$15,888Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 19, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and the UK Met Office converge on a Madrid maximum of 35–36 °C for August 19, 2026, under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southwesterly flow. These conditions favor strong daytime insolation with minimal cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures, placing the expected peak squarely in the market’s leading 36 °C bin (54 % implied probability). Seasonal climatology for mid-August shows typical highs near 33–35 °C, so the current setup reflects a modest positive anomaly rather than extreme heat. Model consensus remains tight, with limited spread that could shift the outcome to 37 °C only if afternoon mixing or slight warming aloft exceeds guidance; conversely, any increase in boundary-layer moisture or earlier cloud development would favor 35 °C. With resolution occurring within 24 hours, traders are weighting the latest AEMET guidance most heavily, anchoring the distribution around the 35–37 °C cluster.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,888Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 19, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and the UK Met Office converge on a Madrid maximum of 35–36 °C for August 19, 2026, under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and light southwesterly flow. These conditions favor strong daytime insolation with minimal cloud cover or moisture to moderate temperatures, placing the expected peak squarely in the market’s leading 36 °C bin (54 % implied probability). Seasonal climatology for mid-August shows typical highs near 33–35 °C, so the current setup reflects a modest positive anomaly rather than extreme heat. Model consensus remains tight, with limited spread that could shift the outcome to 37 °C only if afternoon mixing or slight warming aloft exceeds guidance; conversely, any increase in boundary-layer moisture or earlier cloud development would favor 35 °C. With resolution occurring within 24 hours, traders are weighting the latest AEMET guidance most heavily, anchoring the distribution around the 35–37 °C cluster.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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