NOAA’s updated August outlook maintains a 75% probability of below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity, citing a developing El Niño that increases wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation. As of mid-August, only three named storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—have developed, all remaining below hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with accumulated cyclone energy at just 3% of the seasonal median. Landfall locations along the U.S. Gulf or East Coast ultimately hinge on short-term steering currents and the subtropical ridge rather than basin totals; the National Hurricane Center issues 7-day formation outlooks and track forecasts that traders monitor for shifts. Peak months of August–September remain ahead, with any new model runs or rapid intensification events capable of altering implied probabilities for specific coastal regions.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
ใหม่
Dec 7, 2026
Texas
15%
Louisiana
13%
Mississippi
9%
Alabama
7%
Florida
25%
Georgia
5%
South Carolina
10%
North Carolina
14%
Virginia
5%
Maryland
2%
Delaware
3%
New Jersey
4%
New York
3%
Connecticut
4%
Rhode Island
4%
Massachusetts
3%
New Hampshire
3%
Maine
2%
Hawaii
9%
$9,525 ปริมาณ
Texas
$88 ปริมาณ
15%
Louisiana
$203 ปริมาณ
13%
Mississippi
$281 ปริมาณ
9%
Alabama
$683 ปริมาณ
7%
Florida
$224 ปริมาณ
25%
Georgia
$1,333 ปริมาณ
5%
South Carolina
$182 ปริมาณ
10%
North Carolina
$40 ปริมาณ
14%
Virginia
$458 ปริมาณ
5%
Maryland
$952 ปริมาณ
2%
Delaware
$411 ปริมาณ
3%
New Jersey
$21 ปริมาณ
4%
New York
$770 ปริมาณ
3%
Connecticut
$430 ปริมาณ
4%
Rhode Island
$274 ปริมาณ
4%
Massachusetts
$1,072 ปริมาณ
3%
New Hampshire
$817 ปริมาณ
3%
Maine
$1,285 ปริมาณ
2%
Hawaii
$0 ปริมาณ
9%
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.NOAA’s updated August outlook maintains a 75% probability of below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity, citing a developing El Niño that increases wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation. As of mid-August, only three named storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—have developed, all remaining below hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with accumulated cyclone energy at just 3% of the seasonal median. Landfall locations along the U.S. Gulf or East Coast ultimately hinge on short-term steering currents and the subtropical ridge rather than basin totals; the National Hurricane Center issues 7-day formation outlooks and track forecasts that traders monitor for shifts. Peak months of August–September remain ahead, with any new model runs or rapid intensification events capable of altering implied probabilities for specific coastal regions.
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,525วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 8, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.NOAA’s updated August outlook maintains a 75% probability of below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity, citing a developing El Niño that increases wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation. As of mid-August, only three named storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—have developed, all remaining below hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with accumulated cyclone energy at just 3% of the seasonal median. Landfall locations along the U.S. Gulf or East Coast ultimately hinge on short-term steering currents and the subtropical ridge rather than basin totals; the National Hurricane Center issues 7-day formation outlooks and track forecasts that traders monitor for shifts. Peak months of August–September remain ahead, with any new model runs or rapid intensification events capable of altering implied probabilities for specific coastal regions.
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,525วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 8, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s updated August outlook maintains a 75% probability of below-normal 2026 Atlantic activity, citing a developing El Niño that increases wind shear and suppresses tropical cyclone formation. As of mid-August, only three named storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—have developed, all remaining below hurricane strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with accumulated cyclone energy at just 3% of the seasonal median. Landfall locations along the U.S. Gulf or East Coast ultimately hinge on short-term steering currents and the subtropical ridge rather than basin totals; the National Hurricane Center issues 7-day formation outlooks and track forecasts that traders monitor for shifts. Peak months of August–September remain ahead, with any new model runs or rapid intensification events capable of altering implied probabilities for specific coastal regions.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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