As of early September 2026, the absence of any Atlantic hurricane formation has concentrated trader sentiment on late-month windows or a full September void, with closely matched probabilities reflecting uncertainty in steering patterns and intensification thresholds. Official National Hurricane Center monitoring shows suppressed activity tied to above-average wind shear and neutral-to-cooler sea surface temperatures in the main development region, deviating from historical climatology where the first hurricane typically arrives by mid-August. Updated dynamical models indicate a narrow window for tropical cyclone genesis between September 21–30 if a favorable wave emerges and shear relaxes, while persistent atmospheric conditions could push formation into October or beyond. Upcoming National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration briefings and model runs through mid-month will likely refine these implied odds by clarifying landfall criteria and category thresholds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWhen will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
September 21 to September 25, 2026 31%
September 26 to September 30, 2026 31%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026 24%
September 1 to September 10, 2026 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 10, 2026
September 1 to September 10, 2026
9%
September 11 to September 15, 2026
7%
September 16 to September 20, 2026
7%
September 21 to September 25, 2026
31%
September 26 to September 30, 2026
31%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026
24%
September 21 to September 25, 2026 31%
September 26 to September 30, 2026 31%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026 24%
September 1 to September 10, 2026 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 10, 2026
September 1 to September 10, 2026
$28 ปริมาณ
9%
September 11 to September 15, 2026
$83 ปริมาณ
7%
September 16 to September 20, 2026
$323 ปริมาณ
7%
September 21 to September 25, 2026
$0 ปริมาณ
31%
September 26 to September 30, 2026
$0 ปริมาณ
31%
No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026
$0 ปริมาณ
24%
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/As of early September 2026, the absence of any Atlantic hurricane formation has concentrated trader sentiment on late-month windows or a full September void, with closely matched probabilities reflecting uncertainty in steering patterns and intensification thresholds. Official National Hurricane Center monitoring shows suppressed activity tied to above-average wind shear and neutral-to-cooler sea surface temperatures in the main development region, deviating from historical climatology where the first hurricane typically arrives by mid-August. Updated dynamical models indicate a narrow window for tropical cyclone genesis between September 21–30 if a favorable wave emerges and shear relaxes, while persistent atmospheric conditions could push formation into October or beyond. Upcoming National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration briefings and model runs through mid-month will likely refine these implied odds by clarifying landfall criteria and category thresholds.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$435วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/As of early September 2026, the absence of any Atlantic hurricane formation has concentrated trader sentiment on late-month windows or a full September void, with closely matched probabilities reflecting uncertainty in steering patterns and intensification thresholds. Official National Hurricane Center monitoring shows suppressed activity tied to above-average wind shear and neutral-to-cooler sea surface temperatures in the main development region, deviating from historical climatology where the first hurricane typically arrives by mid-August. Updated dynamical models indicate a narrow window for tropical cyclone genesis between September 21–30 if a favorable wave emerges and shear relaxes, while persistent atmospheric conditions could push formation into October or beyond. Upcoming National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration briefings and model runs through mid-month will likely refine these implied odds by clarifying landfall criteria and category thresholds.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$435วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...As of early September 2026, the absence of any Atlantic hurricane formation has concentrated trader sentiment on late-month windows or a full September void, with closely matched probabilities reflecting uncertainty in steering patterns and intensification thresholds. Official National Hurricane Center monitoring shows suppressed activity tied to above-average wind shear and neutral-to-cooler sea surface temperatures in the main development region, deviating from historical climatology where the first hurricane typically arrives by mid-August. Updated dynamical models indicate a narrow window for tropical cyclone genesis between September 21–30 if a favorable wave emerges and shear relaxes, while persistent atmospheric conditions could push formation into October or beyond. Upcoming National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration briefings and model runs through mid-month will likely refine these implied odds by clarifying landfall criteria and category thresholds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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