Bilateral trade talks and the US-China Board of Trade established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit continue to drive trader expectations for a tariff agreement by year-end. Existing November 2025 understandings already suspend heightened reciprocal tariffs and extend market-based exclusions through November and December 2026, while the new council advances targeted rollbacks on roughly $30 billion in duties alongside commitments on agricultural purchases, rare earth access, and non-tariff barriers. Recent diplomatic continuity, including follow-up ministry statements on reciprocal reductions, reinforces the view that incremental progress will meet the deadline absent sudden escalation. Traders weigh these managed-stability mechanisms against the possibility of delays from unrelated disputes, producing the current 88.5% implied probability for Yes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
89% โอกาส
$220,590 ปริมาณ
$220,590 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
89% โอกาส
$220,590 ปริมาณ
$220,590 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Bilateral trade talks and the US-China Board of Trade established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit continue to drive trader expectations for a tariff agreement by year-end. Existing November 2025 understandings already suspend heightened reciprocal tariffs and extend market-based exclusions through November and December 2026, while the new council advances targeted rollbacks on roughly $30 billion in duties alongside commitments on agricultural purchases, rare earth access, and non-tariff barriers. Recent diplomatic continuity, including follow-up ministry statements on reciprocal reductions, reinforces the view that incremental progress will meet the deadline absent sudden escalation. Traders weigh these managed-stability mechanisms against the possibility of delays from unrelated disputes, producing the current 88.5% implied probability for Yes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$220,590วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Bilateral trade talks and the US-China Board of Trade established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit continue to drive trader expectations for a tariff agreement by year-end. Existing November 2025 understandings already suspend heightened reciprocal tariffs and extend market-based exclusions through November and December 2026, while the new council advances targeted rollbacks on roughly $30 billion in duties alongside commitments on agricultural purchases, rare earth access, and non-tariff barriers. Recent diplomatic continuity, including follow-up ministry statements on reciprocal reductions, reinforces the view that incremental progress will meet the deadline absent sudden escalation. Traders weigh these managed-stability mechanisms against the possibility of delays from unrelated disputes, producing the current 88.5% implied probability for Yes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$220,590วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Bilateral trade talks and the US-China Board of Trade established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit continue to drive trader expectations for a tariff agreement by year-end. Existing November 2025 understandings already suspend heightened reciprocal tariffs and extend market-based exclusions through November and December 2026, while the new council advances targeted rollbacks on roughly $30 billion in duties alongside commitments on agricultural purchases, rare earth access, and non-tariff barriers. Recent diplomatic continuity, including follow-up ministry statements on reciprocal reductions, reinforces the view that incremental progress will meet the deadline absent sudden escalation. Traders weigh these managed-stability mechanisms against the possibility of delays from unrelated disputes, producing the current 88.5% implied probability for Yes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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