**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" (89.5% implied probability) because NRC licensing for new commercial nuclear reactors follows extended, multi-stage timelines that rarely allow a full operating license or combined license (COL) in the same calendar year as a construction permit.** Recent progress includes the NRC issuing its first construction permit in years for TerraPower’s Natrium sodium-cooled reactor in Wyoming (March 2026), plus environmental approvals and design reviews for projects like X-energy’s Xe-100 and others. However, these are early-stage steps; operating licenses require as-built safety verifications, final analyses, and commission approval typically years later (e.g., TerraPower targets commercial operation around 2030–2031). Streamlined processes under executive actions, Part 53 rulemaking, and fixed review schedules (often 18 months for construction permits) have accelerated reviews for advanced reactors and small modular reactors, but full licensing for power-producing units still spans multiple years. DOE test reactor criticalities and restarts of existing plants do not count as new commercial reactor licenses. With only months remaining in 2026 and no pending operating license decisions on the immediate horizon, the market reflects realistic barriers around construction duration, regulatory sequencing, and verification requirements. Key near-term catalysts include any unexpected fast-track safety reviews or commission votes, though historical precedent and current project schedules make completion this year improbable.