Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure at sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Parchin, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and targeting weaponization facilities. Nuclear expert David Albright assessed on July 24, 2026, that this degradation continues to create major technical and detection barriers to Iran producing a nuclear weapon. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding included Iran's reaffirmation against developing nuclear arms, alongside ongoing diplomatic negotiations and threats of further action against remaining sites such as Pickaxe Mountain. These verified military and diplomatic developments underpin trader consensus that breakout remains unlikely before 2027.