Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 severely damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related infrastructure and expertise, according to IAEA and U.S. assessments. These operations, followed by an April 2026 ceasefire, extended breakout timelines to multiple years by degrading centrifuge capacity and leaving a substantial 60% enriched uranium stockpile of uncertain accessibility or recoverability. IAEA inspectors have faced restricted access since mid-2025, with no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities reported through mid-2026. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and sanctions reimposition reinforce the trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% probability for “No,” though uncertainties around stockpile status and leadership succession could influence longer-term outcomes.