**Forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and other models position overnight lows near 21–24°C for Tokyo on August 5, 2026, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 22–23°C.** Early August climatology features average minimum temperatures of about 24°C under typical humid subtropical conditions, but current model consensus shows cloudy skies and moderate moisture that should limit radiative cooling while keeping daytime highs in the upper 20s to low 30s°C. The JMA’s three-day outlook highlights 21°C as a plausible minimum for the preceding day with similar patterns extending into August 5, supporting the 57% implied probability on 23°C and 34.5% on 22°C. No major heatwave or frontal system is expected to shift these values dramatically in the next 48 hours, though small revisions in the evening model runs could still nudge probabilities between the two leading outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?
23°C 57%
22°C 36%
24°C 5%
21°C 2%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 5, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
36%
23°C
57%
24°C
5%
25°C
2%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 57%
22°C 36%
24°C 5%
21°C 2%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 5, 2026
18°C or below
$131 ปริมาณ
<1%
19°C
$158 ปริมาณ
1%
20°C
$151 ปริมาณ
1%
21°C
$122 ปริมาณ
2%
22°C
$365 ปริมาณ
36%
23°C
$656 ปริมาณ
57%
24°C
$320 ปริมาณ
5%
25°C
$170 ปริมาณ
2%
26°C
$308 ปริมาณ
1%
27°C
$131 ปริมาณ
<1%
28°C or higher
$154 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and other models position overnight lows near 21–24°C for Tokyo on August 5, 2026, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 22–23°C.**
Early August climatology features average minimum temperatures of about 24°C under typical humid subtropical conditions, but current model consensus shows cloudy skies and moderate moisture that should limit radiative cooling while keeping daytime highs in the upper 20s to low 30s°C. The JMA’s three-day outlook highlights 21°C as a plausible minimum for the preceding day with similar patterns extending into August 5, supporting the 57% implied probability on 23°C and 34.5% on 22°C.
No major heatwave or frontal system is expected to shift these values dramatically in the next 48 hours, though small revisions in the evening model runs could still nudge probabilities between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,667วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and other models position overnight lows near 21–24°C for Tokyo on August 5, 2026, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 22–23°C.**
Early August climatology features average minimum temperatures of about 24°C under typical humid subtropical conditions, but current model consensus shows cloudy skies and moderate moisture that should limit radiative cooling while keeping daytime highs in the upper 20s to low 30s°C. The JMA’s three-day outlook highlights 21°C as a plausible minimum for the preceding day with similar patterns extending into August 5, supporting the 57% implied probability on 23°C and 34.5% on 22°C.
No major heatwave or frontal system is expected to shift these values dramatically in the next 48 hours, though small revisions in the evening model runs could still nudge probabilities between the two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,667วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and other models position overnight lows near 21–24°C for Tokyo on August 5, 2026, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 22–23°C.** Early August climatology features average minimum temperatures of about 24°C under typical humid subtropical conditions, but current model consensus shows cloudy skies and moderate moisture that should limit radiative cooling while keeping daytime highs in the upper 20s to low 30s°C. The JMA’s three-day outlook highlights 21°C as a plausible minimum for the preceding day with similar patterns extending into August 5, supporting the 57% implied probability on 23°C and 34.5% on 22°C. No major heatwave or frontal system is expected to shift these values dramatically in the next 48 hours, though small revisions in the evening model runs could still nudge probabilities between the two leading outcomes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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