Recent Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi oil facilities triggered sharp volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits during late July 2026, with daily crossings swinging from lows of 11 vessels to a one-day peak near 41 before easing again. These developments reinforced rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and reduced commercial confidence, keeping aggregate weekly volumes suppressed relative to pre-2024 baselines. Trader consensus reflected in the 67.5% implied probability for fewer than 200 transits the week of July 27 aligns with sustained low averages around 30 vessels per day amid ongoing geopolitical friction, while narrower bands near 200-219 capture modest rebound scenarios tied to any temporary de-escalation. Upcoming data releases on regional shipping flows and potential further regulatory or military responses remain key near-term catalysts for sentiment shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 27?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 27?
<200 68%
200-219 24%
220-239 5.7%
240+ 5.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 2, 2026
<200
68%
200-219
24%
220-239
6%
240+
5%
<200 68%
200-219 24%
220-239 5.7%
240+ 5.0%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 2, 2026
<200
$3,994 ปริมาณ
68%
200-219
$830 ปริมาณ
24%
220-239
$127 ปริมาณ
6%
240+
$159 ปริมาณ
5%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi oil facilities triggered sharp volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits during late July 2026, with daily crossings swinging from lows of 11 vessels to a one-day peak near 41 before easing again. These developments reinforced rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and reduced commercial confidence, keeping aggregate weekly volumes suppressed relative to pre-2024 baselines. Trader consensus reflected in the 67.5% implied probability for fewer than 200 transits the week of July 27 aligns with sustained low averages around 30 vessels per day amid ongoing geopolitical friction, while narrower bands near 200-219 capture modest rebound scenarios tied to any temporary de-escalation. Upcoming data releases on regional shipping flows and potential further regulatory or military responses remain key near-term catalysts for sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,109วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi oil facilities triggered sharp volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits during late July 2026, with daily crossings swinging from lows of 11 vessels to a one-day peak near 41 before easing again. These developments reinforced rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and reduced commercial confidence, keeping aggregate weekly volumes suppressed relative to pre-2024 baselines. Trader consensus reflected in the 67.5% implied probability for fewer than 200 transits the week of July 27 aligns with sustained low averages around 30 vessels per day amid ongoing geopolitical friction, while narrower bands near 200-219 capture modest rebound scenarios tied to any temporary de-escalation. Upcoming data releases on regional shipping flows and potential further regulatory or military responses remain key near-term catalysts for sentiment shifts.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,109วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi oil facilities triggered sharp volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits during late July 2026, with daily crossings swinging from lows of 11 vessels to a one-day peak near 41 before easing again. These developments reinforced rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and reduced commercial confidence, keeping aggregate weekly volumes suppressed relative to pre-2024 baselines. Trader consensus reflected in the 67.5% implied probability for fewer than 200 transits the week of July 27 aligns with sustained low averages around 30 vessels per day amid ongoing geopolitical friction, while narrower bands near 200-219 capture modest rebound scenarios tied to any temporary de-escalation. Upcoming data releases on regional shipping flows and potential further regulatory or military responses remain key near-term catalysts for sentiment shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย