Recent Houthi threats and actions targeting Saudi-linked vessels have introduced sharp volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily counts fluctuating between 29 and 41 amid rerouting, vessel turnarounds, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums that compress weekly volumes well below pre-disruption baselines. This dynamic underpins the tightly clustered market-implied odds across sub-180 to 220+ ranges, as traders weigh persistent blockade risks against resilient commercial flows, including shadow-fleet activity and partial rebounds in commodity shipments. Key swing factors include any escalation in Houthi statements or Saudi responses, potential impacts on crude and refined product exports, and broader Red Sea routing economics that could shift consensus ahead of the August 3 resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 3?
<180 46%
220+ 45%
180-199 44%
200-219 43%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 9, 2026
<180
46%
180-199
44%
200-219
43%
220+
45%
<180 46%
220+ 45%
180-199 44%
200-219 43%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 9, 2026
<180
$0 ปริมาณ
46%
180-199
$0 ปริมาณ
44%
200-219
$0 ปริมาณ
43%
220+
$0 ปริมาณ
45%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and actions targeting Saudi-linked vessels have introduced sharp volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily counts fluctuating between 29 and 41 amid rerouting, vessel turnarounds, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums that compress weekly volumes well below pre-disruption baselines. This dynamic underpins the tightly clustered market-implied odds across sub-180 to 220+ ranges, as traders weigh persistent blockade risks against resilient commercial flows, including shadow-fleet activity and partial rebounds in commodity shipments. Key swing factors include any escalation in Houthi statements or Saudi responses, potential impacts on crude and refined product exports, and broader Red Sea routing economics that could shift consensus ahead of the August 3 resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and actions targeting Saudi-linked vessels have introduced sharp volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily counts fluctuating between 29 and 41 amid rerouting, vessel turnarounds, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums that compress weekly volumes well below pre-disruption baselines. This dynamic underpins the tightly clustered market-implied odds across sub-180 to 220+ ranges, as traders weigh persistent blockade risks against resilient commercial flows, including shadow-fleet activity and partial rebounds in commodity shipments. Key swing factors include any escalation in Houthi statements or Saudi responses, potential impacts on crude and refined product exports, and broader Red Sea routing economics that could shift consensus ahead of the August 3 resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats and actions targeting Saudi-linked vessels have introduced sharp volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily counts fluctuating between 29 and 41 amid rerouting, vessel turnarounds, and elevated war-risk insurance premiums that compress weekly volumes well below pre-disruption baselines. This dynamic underpins the tightly clustered market-implied odds across sub-180 to 220+ ranges, as traders weigh persistent blockade risks against resilient commercial flows, including shadow-fleet activity and partial rebounds in commodity shipments. Key swing factors include any escalation in Houthi statements or Saudi responses, potential impacts on crude and refined product exports, and broader Red Sea routing economics that could shift consensus ahead of the August 3 resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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