Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international ensembles show Tokyo's August 21 high temperature most likely settling at 30–31°C, with the tightest probabilities clustered there due to modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon sea-breeze timing. Current subtropical ridge positioning supports continued warm advection, yet slight variations in low-level moisture and cloud cover can shift peak readings by 1°C. Historical mid-August climatology centers near 31°C, providing a narrow baseline against which small forecast adjustments move implied odds. Traders weigh the latest model runs and JMA guidance released over the next 48 hours, recognizing that resolution hinges on official maximum readings from the Tokyo station.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 21?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 21?
31°C 34%
30°C 28%
32°C 19%
29°C 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 21, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
3%
29°C
9%
30°C
28%
31°C
34%
32°C
19%
33°C
7%
34°C
3%
35°C or higher
3%
31°C 34%
30°C 28%
32°C 19%
29°C 9%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 21, 2026
25°C or below
$2,145 ปริมาณ
<1%
26°C
$180 ปริมาณ
1%
27°C
$108 ปริมาณ
2%
28°C
$28 ปริมาณ
3%
29°C
$68 ปริมาณ
9%
30°C
$94 ปริมาณ
28%
31°C
$133 ปริมาณ
34%
32°C
$29 ปริมาณ
19%
33°C
$27 ปริมาณ
7%
34°C
$115 ปริมาณ
3%
35°C or higher
$5 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international ensembles show Tokyo's August 21 high temperature most likely settling at 30–31°C, with the tightest probabilities clustered there due to modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon sea-breeze timing. Current subtropical ridge positioning supports continued warm advection, yet slight variations in low-level moisture and cloud cover can shift peak readings by 1°C. Historical mid-August climatology centers near 31°C, providing a narrow baseline against which small forecast adjustments move implied odds. Traders weigh the latest model runs and JMA guidance released over the next 48 hours, recognizing that resolution hinges on official maximum readings from the Tokyo station.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,933วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international ensembles show Tokyo's August 21 high temperature most likely settling at 30–31°C, with the tightest probabilities clustered there due to modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon sea-breeze timing. Current subtropical ridge positioning supports continued warm advection, yet slight variations in low-level moisture and cloud cover can shift peak readings by 1°C. Historical mid-August climatology centers near 31°C, providing a narrow baseline against which small forecast adjustments move implied odds. Traders weigh the latest model runs and JMA guidance released over the next 48 hours, recognizing that resolution hinges on official maximum readings from the Tokyo station.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,933วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international ensembles show Tokyo's August 21 high temperature most likely settling at 30–31°C, with the tightest probabilities clustered there due to modest uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon sea-breeze timing. Current subtropical ridge positioning supports continued warm advection, yet slight variations in low-level moisture and cloud cover can shift peak readings by 1°C. Historical mid-August climatology centers near 31°C, providing a narrow baseline against which small forecast adjustments move implied odds. Traders weigh the latest model runs and JMA guidance released over the next 48 hours, recognizing that resolution hinges on official maximum readings from the Tokyo station.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย