Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Spain’s AEMET place Madrid’s August 1 maximum squarely in the 37–38 °C range, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 38 °C (64 %) and 39 °C (34 %). Late-July high-pressure persistence, clear skies, and above-average 850 hPa temperatures have sustained elevated readings, with yesterday’s observed peak near 37 °C providing a warm baseline. Typical August climatology peaks around 32 °C, but current conditions support modest further warming without crossing 40 °C thresholds that would require stronger subsidence or advection. Traders appear to weigh these model outputs and recent observations most heavily, with resolution hinging on the official AEMET station reading for the day.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Madrid on August 1?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 1?
38°C 64%
39°C 32%
40°C 5.5%
37°C 3%
ใหม่
$30,080 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$30,080 ปริมาณ
Aug 1, 2026
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
3%
38°C
64%
39°C
32%
40°C
6%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
38°C 64%
39°C 32%
40°C 5.5%
37°C 3%
ใหม่
$30,080 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$30,080 ปริมาณ
Aug 1, 2026
34°C or below
$494 ปริมาณ
<1%
35°C
$1,185 ปริมาณ
<1%
36°C
$530 ปริมาณ
1%
37°C
$10,221 ปริมาณ
3%
38°C
$5,932 ปริมาณ
64%
39°C
$5,111 ปริมาณ
32%
40°C
$3,841 ปริมาณ
6%
41°C
$1,131 ปริมาณ
<1%
42°C
$827 ปริมาณ
<1%
43°C
$378 ปริมาณ
<1%
44°C or higher
$430 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Spain’s AEMET place Madrid’s August 1 maximum squarely in the 37–38 °C range, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 38 °C (64 %) and 39 °C (34 %). Late-July high-pressure persistence, clear skies, and above-average 850 hPa temperatures have sustained elevated readings, with yesterday’s observed peak near 37 °C providing a warm baseline. Typical August climatology peaks around 32 °C, but current conditions support modest further warming without crossing 40 °C thresholds that would require stronger subsidence or advection. Traders appear to weigh these model outputs and recent observations most heavily, with resolution hinging on the official AEMET station reading for the day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$30,080วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Spain’s AEMET place Madrid’s August 1 maximum squarely in the 37–38 °C range, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 38 °C (64 %) and 39 °C (34 %). Late-July high-pressure persistence, clear skies, and above-average 850 hPa temperatures have sustained elevated readings, with yesterday’s observed peak near 37 °C providing a warm baseline. Typical August climatology peaks around 32 °C, but current conditions support modest further warming without crossing 40 °C thresholds that would require stronger subsidence or advection. Traders appear to weigh these model outputs and recent observations most heavily, with resolution hinging on the official AEMET station reading for the day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$30,080วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Spain’s AEMET place Madrid’s August 1 maximum squarely in the 37–38 °C range, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 38 °C (64 %) and 39 °C (34 %). Late-July high-pressure persistence, clear skies, and above-average 850 hPa temperatures have sustained elevated readings, with yesterday’s observed peak near 37 °C providing a warm baseline. Typical August climatology peaks around 32 °C, but current conditions support modest further warming without crossing 40 °C thresholds that would require stronger subsidence or advection. Traders appear to weigh these model outputs and recent observations most heavily, with resolution hinging on the official AEMET station reading for the day.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย