Louisiana’s open jungle primary on November 3 requires any candidate to exceed 50 percent for an outright win and avoid a December 12 runoff. Incumbent Steve Scalise holds a heavily Republican seat rated Solid or Safe R by major forecasters, yet faces Republican challengers including Randall Arrington alongside Democrat Lauren Jewett. Recent congressional map changes following the Supreme Court’s ruling on Louisiana’s districts have shifted boundaries and candidate qualifying, increasing the chance of vote fragmentation among Republicans. Historical patterns show Scalise winning outright with two-thirds or more, but current trader consensus at 85.5 percent “No” reflects the structural risk that even modest support for minor candidates could block a majority in the first round.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว15% โอกาส
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Nov 3, 2026
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Nov 3, 2026
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.Louisiana’s open jungle primary on November 3 requires any candidate to exceed 50 percent for an outright win and avoid a December 12 runoff. Incumbent Steve Scalise holds a heavily Republican seat rated Solid or Safe R by major forecasters, yet faces Republican challengers including Randall Arrington alongside Democrat Lauren Jewett. Recent congressional map changes following the Supreme Court’s ruling on Louisiana’s districts have shifted boundaries and candidate qualifying, increasing the chance of vote fragmentation among Republicans. Historical patterns show Scalise winning outright with two-thirds or more, but current trader consensus at 85.5 percent “No” reflects the structural risk that even modest support for minor candidates could block a majority in the first round.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$103วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.Louisiana’s open jungle primary on November 3 requires any candidate to exceed 50 percent for an outright win and avoid a December 12 runoff. Incumbent Steve Scalise holds a heavily Republican seat rated Solid or Safe R by major forecasters, yet faces Republican challengers including Randall Arrington alongside Democrat Lauren Jewett. Recent congressional map changes following the Supreme Court’s ruling on Louisiana’s districts have shifted boundaries and candidate qualifying, increasing the chance of vote fragmentation among Republicans. Historical patterns show Scalise winning outright with two-thirds or more, but current trader consensus at 85.5 percent “No” reflects the structural risk that even modest support for minor candidates could block a majority in the first round.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$103วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Louisiana’s open jungle primary on November 3 requires any candidate to exceed 50 percent for an outright win and avoid a December 12 runoff. Incumbent Steve Scalise holds a heavily Republican seat rated Solid or Safe R by major forecasters, yet faces Republican challengers including Randall Arrington alongside Democrat Lauren Jewett. Recent congressional map changes following the Supreme Court’s ruling on Louisiana’s districts have shifted boundaries and candidate qualifying, increasing the chance of vote fragmentation among Republicans. Historical patterns show Scalise winning outright with two-thirds or more, but current trader consensus at 85.5 percent “No” reflects the structural risk that even modest support for minor candidates could block a majority in the first round.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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