The race for California's 48th congressional district remains tightly contested ahead of the November 3 general election, with traders assigning roughly even odds to the two nominees and spreading probability across narrow victory margins. Redistricting through Proposition 50 shifted the open seat—previously held by retiring Republican Darrell Issa—several points toward Democrats while preserving competitive pockets in inland San Diego and Riverside counties. Democrat Marni von Wilpert, a San Diego city council member backed by labor, and Republican Jim Desmond, a county supervisor endorsed by President Trump, advanced from the June 2 top-two primary after a fragmented Democratic field. Limited public polling since July shows the candidates within a few points, consistent with registration advantages for Democrats that are offset by the district's rural and suburban dynamics. Developments such as additional polling releases, super PAC spending patterns, or turnout differentials in battleground precincts could widen the margin in either direction before election day.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วCA-48 House Election Margin of Victory
CA-48 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 9-12% 43%
Democrat 0-3% 43%
Republican 3%+ 43%
Democrat 21%+ 43%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 21%+
43%
Democrat 18-21%
42%
Democrat 15-18%
43%
Democrat 12-15%
43%
Democrat 9-12%
43%
Democrat 6-9%
43%
Democrat 3-6%
43%
Democrat 0-3%
43%
Republican 0-3%
43%
Republican 3%+
43%
Democrat 9-12% 43%
Democrat 0-3% 43%
Republican 3%+ 43%
Democrat 21%+ 43%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 21%+
$0 ปริมาณ
43%
Democrat 18-21%
$0 ปริมาณ
42%
Democrat 15-18%
$0 ปริมาณ
43%
Democrat 12-15%
$0 ปริมาณ
43%
Democrat 9-12%
$0 ปริมาณ
43%
Democrat 6-9%
$0 ปริมาณ
43%
Democrat 3-6%
$0 ปริมาณ
43%
Democrat 0-3%
$0 ปริมาณ
43%
Republican 0-3%
$0 ปริมาณ
43%
Republican 3%+
$0 ปริมาณ
43%
The 2026 CA-48 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The race for California's 48th congressional district remains tightly contested ahead of the November 3 general election, with traders assigning roughly even odds to the two nominees and spreading probability across narrow victory margins. Redistricting through Proposition 50 shifted the open seat—previously held by retiring Republican Darrell Issa—several points toward Democrats while preserving competitive pockets in inland San Diego and Riverside counties. Democrat Marni von Wilpert, a San Diego city council member backed by labor, and Republican Jim Desmond, a county supervisor endorsed by President Trump, advanced from the June 2 top-two primary after a fragmented Democratic field. Limited public polling since July shows the candidates within a few points, consistent with registration advantages for Democrats that are offset by the district's rural and suburban dynamics. Developments such as additional polling releases, super PAC spending patterns, or turnout differentials in battleground precincts could widen the margin in either direction before election day.
The 2026 CA-48 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-48 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The race for California's 48th congressional district remains tightly contested ahead of the November 3 general election, with traders assigning roughly even odds to the two nominees and spreading probability across narrow victory margins. Redistricting through Proposition 50 shifted the open seat—previously held by retiring Republican Darrell Issa—several points toward Democrats while preserving competitive pockets in inland San Diego and Riverside counties. Democrat Marni von Wilpert, a San Diego city council member backed by labor, and Republican Jim Desmond, a county supervisor endorsed by President Trump, advanced from the June 2 top-two primary after a fragmented Democratic field. Limited public polling since July shows the candidates within a few points, consistent with registration advantages for Democrats that are offset by the district's rural and suburban dynamics. Developments such as additional polling releases, super PAC spending patterns, or turnout differentials in battleground precincts could widen the margin in either direction before election day.
The 2026 CA-48 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 3:40 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The race for California's 48th congressional district remains tightly contested ahead of the November 3 general election, with traders assigning roughly even odds to the two nominees and spreading probability across narrow victory margins. Redistricting through Proposition 50 shifted the open seat—previously held by retiring Republican Darrell Issa—several points toward Democrats while preserving competitive pockets in inland San Diego and Riverside counties. Democrat Marni von Wilpert, a San Diego city council member backed by labor, and Republican Jim Desmond, a county supervisor endorsed by President Trump, advanced from the June 2 top-two primary after a fragmented Democratic field. Limited public polling since July shows the candidates within a few points, consistent with registration advantages for Democrats that are offset by the district's rural and suburban dynamics. Developments such as additional polling releases, super PAC spending patterns, or turnout differentials in battleground precincts could widen the margin in either direction before election day.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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