Recent analyst surveys and the Bank of Russia’s updated medium-term forecast point to limited scope for further easing at the September 11 meeting, with the key rate already lowered to 14 percent in July. Elevated pro-inflationary pressures from higher fuel prices, accelerated lending, and a larger structural budget deficit have prompted a more cautious stance, leading markets to price a high probability of no change. Consensus forecasts from Russian banks show most analysts expecting the rate to hold steady rather than decline, while the central bank’s baseline projection of a 14.5–14.6 percent average rate for 2026 reinforces expectations of a pause until inflation and fiscal signals improve.