China’s sustained gray-zone operations, including coast guard patrols and maritime law enforcement east of Taiwan, combined with senior PLA purges that have degraded command readiness, underpin trader consensus against an invasion by year-end. Official Taiwanese assessments note that Beijing prioritizes joint blockade and encirclement drills over amphibious landing capabilities, which remain inadequate for a complex cross-strait campaign. Recent US-China diplomatic contacts and reduced ADIZ incursions further signal no near-term escalation. A full invasion by December 2026 would require rapid shifts in PLA logistics, political signaling, or external triggers such as Taiwanese independence moves or abrupt alliance changes, none of which appear imminent within the narrow resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к концу 2026 года?
Вторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к концу 2026 года?
Да
4% вероятность
$40,651,181 Объем
$40,651,181 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
Да
4% вероятность
$40,651,181 Объем
$40,651,181 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China’s sustained gray-zone operations, including coast guard patrols and maritime law enforcement east of Taiwan, combined with senior PLA purges that have degraded command readiness, underpin trader consensus against an invasion by year-end. Official Taiwanese assessments note that Beijing prioritizes joint blockade and encirclement drills over amphibious landing capabilities, which remain inadequate for a complex cross-strait campaign. Recent US-China diplomatic contacts and reduced ADIZ incursions further signal no near-term escalation. A full invasion by December 2026 would require rapid shifts in PLA logistics, political signaling, or external triggers such as Taiwanese independence moves or abrupt alliance changes, none of which appear imminent within the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Объем
$40,651,181Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China’s sustained gray-zone operations, including coast guard patrols and maritime law enforcement east of Taiwan, combined with senior PLA purges that have degraded command readiness, underpin trader consensus against an invasion by year-end. Official Taiwanese assessments note that Beijing prioritizes joint blockade and encirclement drills over amphibious landing capabilities, which remain inadequate for a complex cross-strait campaign. Recent US-China diplomatic contacts and reduced ADIZ incursions further signal no near-term escalation. A full invasion by December 2026 would require rapid shifts in PLA logistics, political signaling, or external triggers such as Taiwanese independence moves or abrupt alliance changes, none of which appear imminent within the narrow resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$40,651,181Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x157Ce2d67...China’s sustained gray-zone operations, including coast guard patrols and maritime law enforcement east of Taiwan, combined with senior PLA purges that have degraded command readiness, underpin trader consensus against an invasion by year-end. Official Taiwanese assessments note that Beijing prioritizes joint blockade and encirclement drills over amphibious landing capabilities, which remain inadequate for a complex cross-strait campaign. Recent US-China diplomatic contacts and reduced ADIZ incursions further signal no near-term escalation. A full invasion by December 2026 would require rapid shifts in PLA logistics, political signaling, or external triggers such as Taiwanese independence moves or abrupt alliance changes, none of which appear imminent within the narrow resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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