US extended nuclear deterrence commitments to allies including NATO members, Japan, South Korea, and Australia remain the central factor supporting trader consensus that no ally will acquire nuclear weapons before 2027. The short resolution window through late 2026 aligns with the absence of any verified programs, deployments, or policy shifts enabling rapid indigenous development or transfer, despite ongoing public debates in Seoul and Tokyo about long-term options and New START's February 2026 expiration. Recent alliance actions, such as strengthened Nuclear Consultative Group mechanisms and AUKUS submarine cooperation, have instead emphasized US umbrella reliability and nonproliferation norms under the NPT. A major crisis or abrupt US policy reversal could still alter probabilities, but current diplomatic and technical barriers make near-term acquisition highly improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
6% вероятность
$209,366 Объем
$209,366 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
6% вероятность
$209,366 Объем
$209,366 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US extended nuclear deterrence commitments to allies including NATO members, Japan, South Korea, and Australia remain the central factor supporting trader consensus that no ally will acquire nuclear weapons before 2027. The short resolution window through late 2026 aligns with the absence of any verified programs, deployments, or policy shifts enabling rapid indigenous development or transfer, despite ongoing public debates in Seoul and Tokyo about long-term options and New START's February 2026 expiration. Recent alliance actions, such as strengthened Nuclear Consultative Group mechanisms and AUKUS submarine cooperation, have instead emphasized US umbrella reliability and nonproliferation norms under the NPT. A major crisis or abrupt US policy reversal could still alter probabilities, but current diplomatic and technical barriers make near-term acquisition highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Объем
$209,366Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US extended nuclear deterrence commitments to allies including NATO members, Japan, South Korea, and Australia remain the central factor supporting trader consensus that no ally will acquire nuclear weapons before 2027. The short resolution window through late 2026 aligns with the absence of any verified programs, deployments, or policy shifts enabling rapid indigenous development or transfer, despite ongoing public debates in Seoul and Tokyo about long-term options and New START's February 2026 expiration. Recent alliance actions, such as strengthened Nuclear Consultative Group mechanisms and AUKUS submarine cooperation, have instead emphasized US umbrella reliability and nonproliferation norms under the NPT. A major crisis or abrupt US policy reversal could still alter probabilities, but current diplomatic and technical barriers make near-term acquisition highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$209,366Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US extended nuclear deterrence commitments to allies including NATO members, Japan, South Korea, and Australia remain the central factor supporting trader consensus that no ally will acquire nuclear weapons before 2027. The short resolution window through late 2026 aligns with the absence of any verified programs, deployments, or policy shifts enabling rapid indigenous development or transfer, despite ongoing public debates in Seoul and Tokyo about long-term options and New START's February 2026 expiration. Recent alliance actions, such as strengthened Nuclear Consultative Group mechanisms and AUKUS submarine cooperation, have instead emphasized US umbrella reliability and nonproliferation norms under the NPT. A major crisis or abrupt US policy reversal could still alter probabilities, but current diplomatic and technical barriers make near-term acquisition highly improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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