Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, limiting access to highly enriched uranium stockpiles now described as buried under rubble. U.S. Director of National Intelligence assessments through March 2026 indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment, while IAEA monitoring remains restricted. Ongoing bilateral negotiations have produced Iranian proposals to pause enrichment for extended periods, dilute or transfer HEU material, and address sanctions relief, though core facilities remain intact and no final agreement has been reached. These verified disruptions and diplomatic channels underpin trader expectations that Iran will not acquire a nuclear weapon before 2027.